Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
220 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA.  THIS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY END THE
RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.  TONIGHT
ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THEN TRAVEL SOUTHEAST FEEDING OFF THE
LOW LEVEL JET.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY THIS JUST IN CASE THE MCS IS ABLE TO SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS INTO THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT.

THINK THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD GET A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS DRY...HOWEVER THE
BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES MAY BE SHORT LIVED WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN
FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK ALSO HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND CARRY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TRYING TO FIND THE DRY
PERIODS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR NOW DECIDED TO CARRY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
DRIED THINGS OUT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

KING

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