Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
425 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER SEVERE AND FLOODING TSTM
OUTBREAK THRU EARLY WED.

SHORT TERM...HOT MOIST AIRMASS HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO NRN KS AND MO.
EXPECT TSTMS CURRENTLY IN SE CORNER OF NEBRASKA TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AS FAIRBURY PROFILER INDICATES LACK OF INFLOW FROM
MOIST UNSTABLE KS AIRMASS.

AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP.  MUCAPE AND SHEAR LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SVR...BUT BELIEVE LACK OF DISTINCT
BOUNDARIES WILL WORK AGAINST ORGANIZED MCS FOR OUR AREA.

SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE UNSTABLE ON TUE.  DAY MAY START WITH MCS
REMNANTS IN THE NORTH...OR NR KS BORDER FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER NORTH.  EXPECT WARM ADVN
AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...PER SPC
DISCUSSION.  HIGH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.50...ALONG WITH 3 HR FLASH
FLOOD GUID BLO 1.50 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...GIVES A STRONG FLOODING
HAZARD FOR THIS SITUATION.  MODELS ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE
FRONT...SO FLOODING RAINS COULD PERSIST INTO WED MORNING IN THE
SOUTH.  COORD WITH DMX.

AFTER FRONT PUSHES SOUTH WED...LOOKS LIKE A DRY INTERLUDE UNTIL FRI.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER CHC OF TSTMS...BUT MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY BE MUCH MORE LIMITED.  MORE DRY WX SHOULD FOLLOW SUN.

BY MON...GFS IS WAFFLING SEVERELY.  ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE ON W COAST UP TO B.C.  LATER RUNS PLUS ECMWF ARE HOLDING
A TROUGH BACK.  A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST IS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN
THAN PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLOOD WATCH NOON TUE TO 4 AM WED ALBION TO TEKAMAH AND NWD.
     FLOOD WATCH 4 PM TUE TO NOON WED COLUMBUS TO BLAIR AND SWD.
IA...FLOOD WATCH NOON TUE TO 4 AM WED MONONA CO.
     FLOOD WATCH 4 PM TUE TO NOON WED IA 55 56 69 79 80 90 91

&&

POLLACK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
614 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-151100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
614 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  THE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL...HIGH
WINDS...AND TORNADOES.  A VERY MOIST...AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
COMBINATION OF SATURATED GROUND...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
AREA.  FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.  FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMITH