Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
445 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RPDLY AT THE EDGE OF
A DRY LINE AND UNUSUAL MINI CIRCULATION BETWEEN AUH AND OLU.  THIS
HAS MOST OF THE FEATURES OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...BUT IS A LOT
SMALLER.  EXPECT CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY E WITH A CHC TOR DVLPMNT
IN COMMA HEAD...OTHERWISE SVR TIL CAPE RUNS OUT LATE THIS EVE.

TSTMS SHOULD HELP A BOUNDARY PUSH SE INTO KS A FAR SE CORNER NE TNGT
THEN STALL OUT IN NRN KS AND MO MON AS WK SFC HIGH PUSHES ACROSS
AREA.  NEXT BATCH OF TSTMS WILL LIKKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER INTO
THE NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT SFC AND UPPER WAVE.
THIS WAVE IS POORLY DEFINED...AND THUS SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE
REVISION AS WELL AS DEPENDENT ON DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY SVR WX AND AN MCS...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNDEFINED YET.
GENERALLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH EARLY WED.

AFTER A COOL DRY INTERLUDE THU...THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP
AGAIN LATE FRI INTO SAT AS A WAVE ARRIVES IN NW FLOW.  LEFT TEMPS
SOMEWHAT ABOVE GUID IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

POLLACK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-141100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS ON TUESDAY COULD
BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE
TIMING AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEED TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY
BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

MILLER