Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
150 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH THE SHORT TERM AND NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDRY THAT WAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT WITH 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWING MAIN BOUNDRY FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN
IOWA. 18Z OAX UA DATA ALSO SHOWING THAT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECOVERED QUICKLY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SO LATEST SPC DISCUSSION
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO LIGHT UP AGAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDRY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 12Z META SETTING
UP 850 THETA-E AXIS FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED EARLER FOR ABOUT THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS COMING IN ON MONDAY WITH
NEXT FRONT AND UPPER WAVE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLOOD WATCH 4 PM SAT TO 4 AM SUN FROM BUTLER SAUNDERS AND SARPY
COUNTIES NORTHWARD.
IA...FLOOD WATCH 4 PM SAT TO 4 AM SUN FROM POTTAWATTMIE COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

&&

NOTE...EFFECTIVE 1200 UTC JUNE 8TH THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER
/PID/ FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY OMAHA WFO WILL
CHANGE TO OMAAFDOAX.  THE WMO CODE WILL REMAIN FXUS63 KOAX.

FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-NEZ015-030>034-042>045-050>053-230500-
BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-HARRISON IA-MADISON-
MONONA IA-PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SHELBY IA-STANTON-
THURSTON-WASHINGTON-
510 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE
HAIL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM
CDT.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS MOVES TO WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT
WILL LAST WELL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS WELL AS LATE NEXT WEEK.  LATER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL ADDRESS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 PM CDT. STORM
SPOTTER WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

IAZ079-080-090-091-NEZ065>068-078-088>093-230500-
CASS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LANCASTER-MILLS IA-
MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SEWARD-
510 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND MOVES TO WEST
CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS WELL AS LATE NEXT WEEK.  LATER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL ADDRESS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 PM CDT. STORM
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

NEZ011-012-016>018-230500-
ANTELOPE-CEDAR-KNOX-PIERCE-WAYNE-
510 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
FLOODING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE
HAIL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM
CDT.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND MOVES TO WEST
CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT
WILL LAST WELL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS WELL AS LATE NEXT WEEK.  LATER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL ADDRESS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATER THIS EVENING.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1101 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
05/22/2004                   LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL HOMES DESTROYED AT 56TH AND OLIVE CREEK ROAD.

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     TORNADO          7 W BEATRICE            40.27N 96.88W
05/22/2004                   GAGE               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 ...COR PLYMOUTH REPORT TIME...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             ESE GLENWOOD            41.05N 95.74W
05/22/2004  1.00 INCH        MILLS              IA   AMATEUR RADIO

1155 PM     TORNADO          1 W PLYMOUTH            40.30N 97.01W
05/22/2004                   JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1024 PM     HAIL             1 W PLYMOUTH            40.30N 97.01W
05/22/2004  1.00 INCH        JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FROM 4 NORTH OF FAIRBURY TO 3
            WEST OF FAIRBURY

&&

JB/TL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1108 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 ...2ND COR PLYMOUTH REPORT TIME...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             ESE GLENWOOD            41.05N 95.74W
05/22/2004  1.00 INCH        MILLS              IA   AMATEUR RADIO

1048 PM     TORNADO          1 W PLYMOUTH            40.30N 97.01W
05/22/2004                   JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1024 PM     HAIL             1 W PLYMOUTH            40.30N 97.01W
05/22/2004  1.00 INCH        JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FROM 4 NORTH OF FAIRBURY TO 3
            WEST OF FAIRBURY

&&

JB/TL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1119 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S HICKMAN             40.61N 96.63W
05/22/2004                   LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            SOUTH OF HICKMAN GRAIN BINS BLOWN DOWN ACROSS ROADS AND
            LIVESTOCK LOOSE IN NORRIS SCHOOL AREA.

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1126 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW THURMAN            40.87N 95.82W
05/22/2004                   FREMONT            IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            RAILROAD CARS BLOWN OVER BUILDING ROOF BLOWN ONTO
            HIGHWAY. I-29 MILE MARKER 20.

&&

JB