Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Omaha, NE

000 
WGUS73 KOAX 210750
FFSOAX
NEC027-107-210930-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
243 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR KNOX AND CEDAR COUNTIES 
430 AM CDT...

AT 243 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF KNOX AND CEDAR 
COUNTIES...COMING DOWN AT A RATE OF ABOUT AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME 
AREAS.  WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT...PREVIOUS 
RAINFALL HAS SATURATED THE GROUND OR HAS RUN OFF INTO AREA CREEKS 
AND STREAMS.

THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF KNOX AND CEDAR COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED THE 
MOST RAINFALL.  RADAR INDICATED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN 
A BAND FROM NIOBRARA TO CROFTON IN NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY...WITH 2 TO 
3 INCH AMOUNTS FROM CROFTON TO WYNOT AND SAINT HELENA IN NORTHERN 
CEDAR COUNTY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF ROAD AND STREAM FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. AS LITTLE AS SIX
INCHES OF WATER MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. THIS
INCLUDES PICKUP TRUCKS AND SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT...OR HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING.

LAT...LON 4286 9725 4279 9716 4276 9702 4251 9703
      4249 9831 4285 9831 4285 9820 4281 9810
      4278 9801 4286 9786 4284 9770 4286 9762

$$

62

000 
WGUS73 KOAX 210948
FFSOAX
NEC027-107-211000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
447 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR KNOX AND CEDAR COUNTIES HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS KNOX AND CEDAR 
COUNTIES...WITH RADAR ESTIMATING ONLY ABOUT A TENTH TO A QUARTER 
INCH PER HOUR FALLING IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES.

HOWEVER EARLIER ESTIMATES SHOWED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN 
BETWEEN NIOBRARA AND CROFTON...AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST CEDAR 
COUNTY.  

LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY STILL BE RUNNING 
HIGH WITH WATER FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...HOWEVER NO REPORTS OF FLOODING 
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  MOTORISTS ARE STILL URGED TO USE CAUTION WHILE 
DRIVING...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WHEN THE DANGERS OF FLOODING ARE 
HARDER TO RECOGNIZE.



LAT...LON 4286 9725 4279 9716 4276 9702 4251 9703
      4249 9831 4285 9831 4285 9820 4281 9810
      4278 9801 4286 9786 4284 9770 4286 9762

$$

62

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN TEMPERATURES...AND CHANCES OF PRECIP
MAINLY FIRST FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSING ON A DRY LINE IN N
CNTRL NEBRASKA.  QUASI DRYLINE AROUND BIE REMAINS QUIET...HELD BACK
BY CAP.  VERY HIGH DEW POINTS PREVAILING TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE
WILL PROVIDE A RICH SOURCE OF CAPE FOR TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING.  WHILE ACTIVITY MAY NOT DIE OUT ENTIRELY LATER
TONIGHT...THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL WARM CAP WILL MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD TO DEVELOP.  TEMPS WILL DROP OFF JUST ENOUGH
THAT HEAT ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.

AFTER TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE REMNANTS DIE OUT OR MOVE SOUTH...MODELS
DRIVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH DURING THE DAY WED...INTO FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AS WARM CAP AT MID LEVELS WEAKENS A
LITTLE BIT...THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TSTMS ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  HOT TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND HIGH DEW POINTS JUST NORTH.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PUSH ON THURSDAY LOOKS MORE CONVINCING.  BEST
MOISTURE FIELDS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATE BY THEN...ALTHOUGH NOT
VERY FAR SOUTH.  MODELS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THE
MID LEVEL FRONT...SO RAISED POPS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTH AFTER
COORD.

FRIDAY AND SAT LOOK COOL AND DRY.  SEVERAL MODELS PINCH THE SW END
OF A STRONG TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN U.S....MAKING A
CLOSED LOW OVER OUR AREA.  WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...AFTER COORD
WITH A FEW NEIGHBORS...ELECTED TO FOG FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN AND
EVE TSTMS.  REST OF FORECAST WILL BE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL.
RAISED TEMPS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND HPC DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

POLLACK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
939 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-211000-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
939 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT.

FOBERT