Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
902 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

.UPDATE...FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
TAKING THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH IT THIS HOUR.
THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE (DRYING) BEHIND THIS FEATURE WHICH MAY
GIVE THE AREA ENOUGH CLEARING TO HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
STILL DEALING WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER ONE INCH BOTH SOUTH AND WEST OF US THIS MORNING. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING OR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AGAIN TODAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...IF IT BECOMES TOO INTENSE MAY LIMIT HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

TWO OTHER FEATURES...ONE WEST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WORDING LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH THESE TWO FEATURES. MAIN UPDATE TODAY WILL BE TO REMOVE
EARLY MORNING SHOWER WORDING AND ADJUST SKY COVER TODAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXITING DISTURBANCE
STILL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING.  HAVE SOME SEEN SOME LOCALLY
GOOD MODERATE RAINFALLS IN THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS.

INTERESTING FORECAST AFTER DISTURBANCE EXITS THIS MORNING.  WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE.
HOWEVER...AIR MASS QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WEST COAST
TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH LAST REMNANTS OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CASCADES. WHILE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT QUITE
AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY THERE IS STILL ENOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR
SIGNIFICANT LOCAL RAINS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS.  FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. A COOL FRONT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING WEST
FLOW.  SHOULD BE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS WELL AS THE VALLEYS FROM MISSOULA NORTH.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WERE EXTREMELY VARIABLE YESTERDAY
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.  VALLEYS IN THE NORTHWEST AND IDAHO CLIMBED
INTO THE 90S...WHILE WEST CENTRAL MONTANA STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE
80S.  CHANGES TODAY WILL LIKEWISE BE INCONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT WARMING
IN SOME AREAS AND COOLING IN OTHERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT RELIEF TO THE WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT
AFTER THE WINDS DIMINISH. THE AIR MASS IS ALSO SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LESS CLOUDS LITTLE OR NO TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH
THE AREA THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL ...THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT IS VERY SMALL. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS. &&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/MEAD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/WHITMORE/BAUCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
815 PM MDT (715 PM PDT) SUN JUL 18 2004

IDZ005>010-MTZ001>007-043-190315-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
WEST GLACIER REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-
BUTTE/PINTLAR REGION-BLACKFOOT REGION-
815 PM MDT (715 PM PDT) SUN JUL 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
835 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KALISPELL               48.20N 114.31W
07/19/2004                   FLATHEAD           MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN BASEMENT AND STREET FLOODING

0415 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KALISPELL               48.20N 114.31W
07/19/2004                   FLATHEAD           MT   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN ALL MAIN STREETS AND UNDERPSSSES FLOODED

0415 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KALISPELL               48.20N 114.31W
07/19/2004                   FLATHEAD           MT   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN UNDERPASS HAS 4 FEET OF WATER. THREE CARS
            TRAPPED.

&&

HH