Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) DROPPING SSE FROM SOUTHERN IL/IN INTO WRN KY AT THIS
TIME.  THERE SEEMS TO BE A BETTER PUSH SOUTH THAN SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS WAS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ETA/MESO-ETA MODEL SUGGESTED.  THE RUC
MODEL WAS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT SEEMED TO BE MISSING THE MCS.  WILL
LIKELY TAKE A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE AS THE FORECAST IS WORDED PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH 30% POPS ALL AREAS FOR NOW.  FOR AVIATION (TAFS) THERE
SEEMED TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION REACHING CHA AND TRI THAN
TYS...WITH AT LEAST SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS POSSIBLY
AFFECTING ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA DEVELOPING FROM TRI AREA INTO EASTERN PARTS OF SWRN
VA...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF CHA.  THAT ACTIVITY
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND DISSIPATED.

MAY UPDATE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER TRACK OF THE MCS BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION IS ALREADY
STARTING TO STABILIZE...LEAVING A GOOD CONTRAST FROM THE VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER WRN TN/KY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-141000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
915 PM EDT (815 PM CDT) TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TONIGHT)...

A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY...AND LIKELY MOVE INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.  SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE...THE CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS
TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012-013-035>037-067>069-071-072-081>087-098>102-140700-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-CLAY-
EAST POLK-HAMILTON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-
NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNION-WEST POLK-
950 PM EDT (850 PM CDT) TUE JUL 13 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3AM EDT (2 AM CDT)
FOR MUCH OF EAST TENNESSEE...AS WELL AS CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES
OF NORTH CAROLINA...

A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY...AND LIKELY MOVE INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.  SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE...THE CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS
TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS
EAST OF KNOXVILLE...BUT THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MAYNARDVILLE...TO KNOXVILLE AND
MARYVILLE TENNESSEE...AND TO HAYESVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TG