Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. TSTORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN
THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS... WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 POPS FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...POSSIBLE MCS MAY MOVE
ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING TUESDAY AS
STATED ABOVE SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH
PARENT UPPER LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL
DATA MOVES THIS FRONT SOUTHEAST AND PUTS IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TUESDAYS WARM TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 90 TO 95 ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN TENNESSEE
AND 80S ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AFTERNOON NORTH AND
EARLY EVENING SOUTH IF THE FRONT MOVES AS FAST AS EXPECTED. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEER FOR
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING TO THE NORTH IN KY
AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
ABOUT THREE GOOD DAYS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITHOUT RAIN AND LOWER HUMIDITIES BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS MAY DROP AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  72  94  73  94 /  30  30  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  92  72  92 /  30  30  30  40
OAK RIDGE, TN  70  89  72  91 /  30  30  30  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  68  88  68  89 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

DMG/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-131000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
1020 AM EDT (920 AM CDT) MON JUL 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
302 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STRAWBERRY PLAINS       36.06N 83.69W
07/12/2004                   JEFFERSON          TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

GM