Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 PM EDT FRI JUN  4 2004

.SHORT TERM....TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVER SO
SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN KY
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHERN TN AND SW VA AT MID
AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL RURAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER SW VA BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S NORTH NEAR 80
SOUTH. DRY AIR HAS HELPED DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND A WARM FRONT ALONG THE NC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE EAST AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL AREAS AND THEN DRY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY OVER NE TN AND SW VA
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY IF THERE IS ENOUGH
CLEARING BEORE MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS SATURDAY MID 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CHANCE OF RAIN THAT
PERIOD.  THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
PUTTING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE ORDER OF BUSINESS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A STEADY RISE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 TO THE SOUTH AND MID 80S NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  84  61  86 /  10   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  80  59  84 /  10  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  80  58  85 /  10  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  76  55  81 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

TD/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
517 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-051000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
517 AM EDT (417 AM CDT) FRI JUN 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WITH THE
GROUND ALREADY WET IN MANY AREAS...FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.