Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Morristown, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMRX 082045
FFSMRX
VAC167-082145-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
442 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN RUSSELL COUNTY NEAR 
LEBANON. THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING THE FLASH FLOOD WAS NEARLY 
STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...LEBANON...HANSONVILLE...
CLEVELAND...CASTLEWOOD...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT 3 TO 4  
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 
2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1 HOUR.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER 
SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3676 8202 3694 8196 3705 8228 3679 8236

$$

GH

000 
WGUS74 KMRX 082154
FFSMRX
VAC167-082215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
548 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR RUSSELL COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL 
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.  

SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT OF SERIOUS 
FLOODING HAS ENDED.  DO NOT DRIVE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TURN 
AROUND...DONT DROWN.  NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED AREA ON FOOT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3694 8231 3672 8235 3698 8178 3712 8192

$$

GH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT TUE JUN  8 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF MURPHY NC THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
LITTLE TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE SE
OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  FOR
TOMORROW...CONCERN IS FOR WHERE TO PAINT POPS. THE ETA MODEL APPEARS
TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE AFTER CONSULTATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.  HOWEVER...THE ETA MODEL IS DRYING THE FA OUT QUITE A BIT
AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE CONTINUED LIFT IN
THE REGION AND POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY
HAVE SMALL SCALE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH IF ONE OF THESE
STORMS DOES MANAGE TO SIT OVER ONE LOCATION...AS THEY HAVE DONE
TODAY....WE COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WERE TRENDED TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE...BASED ON PERSISTENCE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN THE NORMALLY
FOG PRONE AREAS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW LOOK TO FALL RIGHT IN LINE WITH
MAV GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN AS RUNS FROM MET AND FWC ALL ARE WARMING UP
THE ENTIRE CWA WAY TO MUCH CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO LINGER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL APPARENT OVER NC/SC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS MODEL SHOWS A
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. PREFER THE ETA WHICH IS MUCH WEAKER MOVING A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE NEAR SW VA COUNTIES BY EARLY FRIDAY AND LINGER
THEIR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER DURING THE DAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NORTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

.EXTENDED TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OFF
WITH A WARM FRONT PROGGED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS FAR OUT
THOUGH...MOS POPS TEND TO BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH AND HAVE CUT THOSE
BACK TO GO 40 POPS UP NORTH FOR MONDAY AND 30S DOWN IN THE SOUTH.
BY TUESDAY MORNING...HPC AND THE MODELS ADVERTISE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ACCEPT THE
ONCOMING FRONT BUT WILL GO SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE HPC DEPICTION
AND MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON BY 18Z. AT
THIS TIME WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS TO 40 AREA WIDE AND THEN TAPER
THEM DOWN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOMING CLEAR AND A LITTLE COOLER
AND DRIER.

THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE CHAT THIS MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  85  69  84 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  83  69  81 /  20  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  82  68  81 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  82  63  78 /  30  30  20  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

KG/DMG/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
508 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-091000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
508 AM EDT (408 AM CDT) TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.