Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...BIG CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED NEAR TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI AND STARTING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.  THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED U/L LOW NEAR COLUMBIA MISSOURI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE
SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL HELP AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONITE.  INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MODERATE WITH SOME MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING LIFTED INDICIES REACHING INTO THE MINUS 7 RANGE
AND CAPES GETTING AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  FOR
THIS REASON...ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT. THE CURRENT REASONING IS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA BEFORE TURNING THE CORNER
AND MOVING OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.  AS THIS LOW
PASSES...EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TODAY...WILL START WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA AND MID CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS CONVECTION ONGOING OVER
CENTRAL TN WORKS ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION.  AROUND 06Z...INCREASING
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES.  THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY
POPS STAY IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH OUR FA.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS MAV
NUMBERS ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN MET NUMBERS. IN MOST INSTANCES
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF TEMPS. HAVE RAISED TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN
THE NORTH AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MINS JUST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS 58 AT TRI. HIGHS FOR TOMORROW WILL BE
SUPRESSED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND HERE FOLLOWED MAV NUMBERS.

CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOODING ALSO EXISTS AS SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY TRAIN OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  NOT ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS CURRENT
RAINFALL TOTALS COMING IN FROM THE STORMS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL
NOT EXCEED CURRENT ZONE FFG.  HOWEVER...ONCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS AS SOME STORM CELLS MAY TEND TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER SITUATION CONSULT THE CURRENT HWO FROM THIS OFFICE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIMES AS
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES ON WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND IN SW VA PROBABLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING OR
SO. THEN A DRY-ISH PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
BUT SHORT WAVE, ACCORDING TO GFS, ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A REAL RAINER. CURRENT SIX HOUR QPFS OF OVER AN
INCH FOR 12 HOURS ON MONDAY. MODEL SAYS IT WILL BE ALONG THE KY LINE
INTO SW VA, BUT 50 MILES THAT FAR OUT IS DIFFICULT TO HIT WITH
ACCURACY. SO...SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA IT COULD HAPPEN. THIS WILL NOT
BODE WELL FOR FLOOD STRICKEN AREAS IF IT VERIFIES. HAVE RESISTED THE
TEMPATATION TO PUT VERY HIGH POPS IN THAT FAR OUT, BUT TRIED TO
INDICATE GOOD CHANCES, NEVERTHELESS. GFS DROPPED TEMPS MANY, MANY
DEGREES DURING THE PERIOD AND I DROPPED THEM, TOO, THOUGH BY ONLY A
COUPLE.

.EXTENDED TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...FOR THE EXTENDED HAVE
FOLLOWED MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSELY AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFSX HAVE
BEEN NEARLY CONSISTANT IN THEIR TIMING. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH AS WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY AND ON TUESDAY NIGHT HAVE
GONE DRY TO THE SOUTH...BUT KEPT LOW CHANCE NORTH AND THEN INCREASED
TO CHANCE MOST LOCATIONS AS DIURNAL CONVECTION RESUMES FOR WEDNESDAY
UNDER THE SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MORE OF THE SAME
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AND TAIL IT BACK TO DRY
SOUTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

CHATTANOOGA, TN   65  78  59  82 /  50  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE, TN   63  74  58  79 /  60  60  50  10
BRISTOL, TN   60  69  56  77 /  60  60  80  20
OAK RIDGE, TN   62  73  57  78 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

KG/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-041000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
1000 AM EDT (900 AM CDT) THU JUN 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT
LYING OVER THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
RAIN IN A SHORT TIME TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. THE
MAIN THREAT AREAS WILL BE RUGGED TERRAIN...THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS...
AND URBANIZED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALWAYS KEEP
YOURSELF SAFE FIRST...AND ACCURATELY REPORT WEATHER AFTER.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1129 AM EDT THU JUN 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S NORMA               36.31N 84.39W
06/02/2004                   SCOTT              TN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ONE LARGE TREE AND FEW LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

0819 PM     HAIL             SURGOINSVILLE           36.47N 82.86W
06/02/2004  0.88 INCH        HAWKINS            TN   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER COMPANY EMPLOYEE WITNESSED NICKEL SIZE HAIL FOR 4
            MINUTES.

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE SEYMOUR            35.90N 83.75W
06/02/2004                   SEVIER             TN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ONE LARGE TREE AND SEVERAL LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

KG/TG