Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS TRAILING WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER N FL. SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE HEATING
BECOMING A FACTOR BY MIDDAY EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAVORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS AS CLOUD COVER IS LESS EXTENSIVE.
THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVER
THE REGION WITH ERODED CAP AND PWAT OVER 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO NEAR 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BASED ON
FRONTAL POSITION AND CLOUD COVER HAVE REDUCED POPS MOST NOTABLY OVER
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP 50 PERCENT MENTION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA ALONG WITH AFTERNOON THUNDER. HWO WL BE UPDATED BY 11 AM.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE...WINDS WSW NEAR 15KT AT BUOY 41009 AT MID
MORNING...WITH FRONT LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NW-N THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SURGE A BIT BEHIND THE
FRONT. MAY NEED CAUTION HEADLINES AGAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED...MAINLY TO UPDATE FOR TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM...GLITTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1051 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
272100-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1051 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER AREAS SOUTH OF METRO ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL. SURFACE
HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY PRODUCE A
FEW STRONG STORMS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DANGERS WILL BE CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WINDS GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE
CHOPPY WAVES OF 7 FEET OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PENDERGRAST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
237 PM EDT TUE APR 27 2004

AMZ555-FLZ054-271910-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
237 PM EDT TUE APR 27 2004

A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH WINTER BEACH AND GIFFORD THROUGH 3
PM. THE STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

JP