Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE KEYS THIS MORNING PROGD TO CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTN. MORNING CENTRAL FL SOUNDINGS A BIT DRIER THAN
RECENT DAYS WITH 1.64 INCHES AT KTBW AND 1.45 AT KXMR.

LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS PROGD TO LIFT NORTHWARD TO N FL THIS AFTN WITH
E/SE FLOW TO 600 MBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL.  A FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS HAVE APPROACHED THE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COAST THIS MORNING AND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN SECTIONS (E/ESE
WINDS AT 15 KNOTS TO 700 MBS ON KMFL SOUNDING) MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY
MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE AFTN. FOR THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST...
EAST COAST BRZ SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITH SCT COVERAGE WEST OF I-95.
CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS GOOD IN THE GRIDS WITH SCT COVERAGE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AS SEA BRZ MOVES INLAND.

WILL MAKE MINOR WORDING CHANGES TO ZFP ON UPDATE TO HIGHLIGHT
ACTIVITY MAINLY WEST OF I 95 FOR THE CENTRAL/NRN CSTL COUNTIES. SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED ON KTBW/KXMR SOUNDINGS WITH H5 TEMPS STILL
CLOSE TO -8 DEC C. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SECTIONS IN LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS IS RESULTING IN LIGHT FLOW...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTH LEG.  NO PROBLEMS
WITH WINDS/SEAS...ONLY HAZARD WOULD BE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
CONVERGENCE LINES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM...LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
291601-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND QUICKLY...
LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
TOWARDS TAMPA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO STORM
CHANCES IN LAKE AND ORANGE COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING.

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO FORM...WITH
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH...AND COIN
SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY PRODUCE ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A 60 TO 90
MINUTE PERIOD...CAUSING TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS...POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS. COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE RECEIVED TORRENTIAL RAIN
IN RECENT DAYS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS CAUSING
TEMPORARY ROAD FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN OF MORNING SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY WITH
FOCUS FOR STORMS SHIFTING EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO BE BELOW NORMAL SO STORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
104 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ053-291745-
OSCEOLA-
104 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 1257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 7 MILES
EAST OF YEEHAW JUNCTION TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF YEEHAW JUNCTION...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER YEEHAW JUNCTION BY 130 PM.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE KISSIMMEE NEAR THE
FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND CANOE CREEK ROAD.

IF THE STORMS STRENGTHEN FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ058-291800-
OKEECHOBEE-
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL DEVELOPING OVER THE CITY OF OKEECHOBEE...

AT 112 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER TAYLOR
CREEK...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE CITY OF OKEECHOBEE.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE FOUR SEASONS ESTATES.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.