Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1245 PM EDT MON JUN  7 2004

.DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND
MAY EVEN HAVE ENOUGH SW STEERING FLOW TO NUDGE STORMS BACK TWD THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG (TO ISOLD SVR) DURING THE LATE AFTN. WILL GO WITH LOW
END SCT POPS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND TAPER S CSTL SECTIONS TO 20
PCT. CONVECTION AROUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WILL DRIFT WEST AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH MARTIN/ST LUCIE COUNTY COAST LATE SO WILL GO WITH
SLGT CHC ACROSS SRN COASTAL SECTIONS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  72  87 /  30  30  10  30
MCO  71  90  71  89 /  30  40  20  40
MLB  72  87  73  87 /  20  30  10  30
VRB  72  87  73  87 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM...LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
515 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
072200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
515 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE IS A HIGH THREAT FOR LIGHTNING OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TODAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A BETTER INLAND PUSH...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE...TO
LAKE HARNEY...TO LAKE GEORGE. EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE OVER THAT AREA. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE STRONG STORMS TO OCCUR
WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING MARINALLY SEVERE LIMITS. AS A RESULT...
THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ALSO...BECAUSE BOUNDARIES WILL BE NUMEROUS...THERE
IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR A SMALL BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM MELBOURNE BEACH SOUTHWARD.

...FLOOD IMPACT...

STEERING FLOW WINDS HAVE WEAKENED WHILE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
MOIST. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT JUST AS CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. INTERIOR
COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE A MODERATE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
TODAY.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
34 KNOTS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM COCOA
BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARD INLAND
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RETURNED FOCUS TOWARD THE EAST COAST
WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS BACK SOUTH
AND THE WIND FLOW RECLAIMS A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

SHARP