Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN  2 2004

.DISCUSSION...

...THE WET SEASON APPEARS TO BE HERE...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS..

THU...MID LVL S/W WILL MOVE ACROSS GA/SC THU MORNING AND OFF THE GA
COAST BY AFTN. MID LVL SHEAR AXIS AND VORT LOBE WILL TRAIL INTO THE
NRN PENINSULA BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LVL OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DELAY
SEA BRZ NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT SHOULD STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTN.
SFC TROUGH AND SEA BRZ CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP
FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY NNE INTO CSTL VOLUSIA COUNTY BY MID-LATE
AFTN. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO STORMS WITH STRENGTH OF MID LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...SRN ZONES MAY SEE BETTER CHC FOR PULSE
STRONG/SVR WITH INCREASED INSOLATION. WILL KEEP THE ERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA WITH AT LEAST 50 PCT POPS. HIGHS LWR 90S FOR INTERIOR AND UPR
80S TO AROUND 90 CSTL.

THU NGT...WILL KEEP POPS HIGHER THAN GUID WITH 40 PCT INTERIOR AND
50 PCT E COAST FOR MAINLY EVENING ACTIVITY. ETA AND NGM SIMLIAR WITH
LOW PRES DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM CSTL SECTIONS OF GA. THIS
WILL KEEP AREA IN FAVORABLE PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AREA WITH
TRAILING VORT ENERGY CONTINUING ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA.

FRI...SECONDARY STRONG S/W DIVES DOWN INTO AL/GA REINFORCING SFC LOW
ACROSS THE SE STATES AND KEEPING CENTRAL FL IN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND SW MID LVL FLOW. WILL BUMP UP TSTM CHANCES TO 50/60 PCT RANGE
WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. SHOULD SEE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS WELL WHICH MAY LIMIT HIGH TEMPS A BIT
FROM RECENT DAYS. E COAST SEA BRZ SHOULD ALSO EHNHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN HOURS. HIGHS MAINLY 85-90.

SAT/SUN...SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK NWD TWD CENTRAL FL WITH LOW/MID
LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS DROP BACK TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES BUT WILL
KEEP 40 POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTN WITH LATE DAY
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALLOWING FOR SCT COVERAGE.

MON-WED...UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ATLC WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ERN GULF BY MID WEEK.
EAST COAST SEA BRZ SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR BY EVENING EACH
DAY...WITH LOW SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CLIMO POPS IN THE
35-40 PCT RANGE ARE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...S/SW FLOW WILL BECOME S/SE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS NORTHWARD TWD THE WATERS. SHOULD KEEP WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  71  85 /  50  50  50  60
MCO  74  92  73  88 /  20  50  40  50
MLB  73  89  72  87 /  50  50  50  60
VRB  73  89  72  87 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM...VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
022200-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
1155 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LINE OF LIGHTNING STORMS OVER MARION AND SUMTER COUNTIES WILL MOVE
INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR...AND AS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST AS ORMOND BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND.

STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AS SEA AND LAKE BREEZES...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACT...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD AND
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EVEN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH FLORIDA MAY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE
INTENSE STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...MAINLY OVER OR JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. SOME LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE AROUND
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
AS SCATTERED  LIGHTNING STORMS SPREAD OFFSHORE THE MAINLAND AND
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS...BARRIER ISLANDS...AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY THIS EVENING...SQUALLS
OVER 35 KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN
HEAVY RAINFALL..AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
THE WET SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE LIGHTNING STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO SAFETY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

FLZ044-144-021745-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ABOUT
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 1255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM BUSHNELL
TO WILDWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE LISBON...LEESBURG...OKAHUMPKA...TAVARES AND EUSTIS.

MOTORISTS DRIVING ON THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE IN LAKE COUNTY SHOULD ALSO
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THESE STRONG STORMS.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

CRISTALDI