Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOT A LATE START THIS AFTN DUE TO MID/UPPER
DEBRIS CLOUDS...HOWEVER THERE IS LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (MID
LEVEL DRY AIR) THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE TUE AFTN AND MID LEVEL TEMPS
ARE UNIFORMLY COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUE AS WELL (IT WAS MID LEVEL
COOLING DURING THE EVENING BEHIND A STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED H50
VORTLOBE WHICH LED YOURS TRULY TO HORRIBLY UNDERFORCAST COEVERAGE
AND ESPECIALLY INTENISTY OF LAST NIGHTS PRECIP/STORMS). STEERING
FLOW IS A SOLID 20-25KT WHICH SHOULD PUSH ACTIVITY SE AT A MUCH
FASTER CLIP THAN TUE...AND SHOULD LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE BY ONSET OF
THE EVENING PERIOD (00Z/8PM). HAVE PAINTED HIGHEST COVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST 1-2HR FROM SRN BREVARD SWD (40) WITH 30 ACROSS THE SOUTH INTR
AND 20 TO THE NORTH. SLOW CLEARING WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST
AND A LIGHT NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE COOLER MINS. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG TO THE
ZONES.

THU-FRI...AMPLIFYING UPR PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG
GRADIENT FLOW ON THE N AND WEST SIDES OF DEVELOPING GALE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. A MARINE SURGE WILL WRAP SOUTHWARD AROUND SYSTEM ALONG
THE SE COAST. VEERING WINDS LOCALLY WL BECOME ONSHORE FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
SURGE OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN BOTH LL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MENTIONED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THU NIGHT DUE TO FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE. FRI DRYING INDICATED AS RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED
FROM THE GULF NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. NE FLOW WITH MILD TEMPS DUE
TO MARINE INFLUENCE AND ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE WL BE SCT STRATOCU
WORKING IN FROM THE MARINE AREA. SHOWERS WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE MARINE AREA WITH SOME SPRINKLES MAKING IT THE THE COAST...
HOWEVER WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

WEEKEND...PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVERALL AS UPR RIDGE WL MAINTAIN OVER
THE GULF WHILE FLATTENING W/TIME. ELSEWHERE UPR PATTERN BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL ADROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCAL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE TENDENCY WITH AIRMASS AND DAILY
HIGHS AND LOWS INFLUENCED BY MARINE AREA. A WEAK FRONT IS ADVERTISED
MAKING PROGRESS INTO N FL ON MON AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH MORE THAN A WIND
SHIFT WL BE ASCD WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXTENDED...MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WL BUILD LATE THU IN RESPONSE TO MARINE SURGE WORKING
SOUTH FROM DEVELOPING GALE OFF THE CAROLINAS. HEADLINES WILL BE
LIKELY BY THU EVENING FOR A BUILDING NE SWELL. LATEST WAVE WATCH SEA
HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BUT 8-9 FT IS INDICATED @41009
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  84  67  79 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  70  86  67  83 /  20  10   0   0
MLB  70  84  69  83 /  40  20  20  20
VRB  70  86  69  83 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
433 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
202000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
433 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY FIRST DEVELOP ALONG
BOUNDARIES SET OUT BY LAST NIGHTS STORMS AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE THE OCCURRENCE
OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE FROM WEST TO
EAST...HOWEVER NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO MORE UNSTABLE
AIR. BE SURE TO GET INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS AT THE FIRST SIGN
OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH CROSSING THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS BEFORE
WEAKENING. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
THE MIDDLE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN CONTINUES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT FALL IN THE RIVER LEVEL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...LONG PERIOD
OCEAN SWELLS WILL DEVELOP BY WEEKS END AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THOSE PLANNING TO GO TO THE BEACH SHOULD BE AWARE THAN THESE
SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

BLOTTMAN