Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 19, 2004, 6:15 PM EDT for Lake County, Orange County, Florida. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 19, 2004, 6:15 PM EDT (22:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 19, 2004, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Lake County, FL, Orange County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2796 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 485 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 42 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS52 KMLB 192215 SVRMLB FLC069-095-192315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 615 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 608 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER TAVARES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MID FLORIDA LAKES AND WEKIWA SPRINGS STATE PARK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LAT...LON 2889 8175 2874 8185 2854 8154 2874 8143 $$ RL
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 19, 2:30 PM EDT, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 19, 2:30 PM EDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 230 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2004 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF DIURNAL CU BUILDUPS ALONG WITH JET CI/CS STREAMING OVHD FROM UPSTREAM H25 DIVG. KMLB 88D HAS BEEN SHOWING SMALL SHOWERS POPPING UP SINCE 16Z...ESPEC ALONG LOCAL MESO BDRYS (SEA/LAKE BREEZES). HOWEVER...THEY HAVE BEEN ENTRAINING DRY AIR ABOVE H85 AND ARE WEAKENING JUST AS RAPIDLY AS THEY FORM. THROUGH TONIGHT... ANTICIPATE ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z...THOUGH WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MAKE A QUICK FINAL CALL IF RADAR TRENDS DICTATE SMALL POPS THIS EVENING. AS THE SRN STREAM H50 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT JET MAXIMA DROP ESE...SFC PRESSURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE DELMARVA AND CAROLINAS EWD INTO THE ATLC. PWATS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BDRY OVERNIGHT. AS THE PREV SHIFT DID....HAVE KEPT LATE PRE-FRONTAL POPS CONFINED TO THE NRN CWA...WITH A SLIGHT CHC AS FAR SOUTH AS METRO ORLANDO. WED... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WL AMPLIFY WHILE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE. TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH EASTERN MOVEMENT OF FEATURE AND ASCD DEVELOPING SFC LOW. A TRAILING VORT AXIS AND ASCD SFC MOIST CONV AXIS WL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN PSEUDO FRONTAL FASHION. DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND WLY WIND SHIFT. WL KEEP SCT POPS IN FORECAST WITH MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE. THU/FRI... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WL BUILD DOWN FROM THE MID ATLC COAST IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING COASTAL LOW. A NNE WIND SURGE WITH DEVELOPING BREEZY CONDITIONS WL LIKELY BRING A SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE EACH DAY WITH ASCD STRATO CU AND ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG THE ECFL COAST DURING THE DAY ON THU. HAVE KEPT ISOLD POPS IN FCST FOR STRATO CU SHOWERS. TEMP RANGE WL BE MODERATED BY WATER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH MID 80S OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO MENTION OF POPS FOR FRI ATTM AS MOISTURE WL BE CONFINED TO A FAIRLY LOW LAYER. SAT-SUN... ANOTHER PLEASANT WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NE FLOW AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WINDS. A HIGH CENTER WL PINCH OFF FROM THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE STATE FROM THE APPALACHIAN REGION. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NOS. EXTENDED...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON WITH LITTLE NOTICE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WL INDICATE A DRY FSCT WITH COTD W TO NW FLOW. && .MARINE... DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE US EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND HEADLINES OF SOME SORT BECOMING MORE LIKELY AROUND FRI AS LONG FETCH UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING LARGER SEAS TO THE WATERS. CURRENT WAVE WATCH PREDICTIONS INDICATE AN ENVELOPE OF 3+ METER SEAS ON FRI WITH SLOW DECAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER SEAS CONFINED OVER THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO THU. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 85 69 82 / 30 50 10 20 MCO 72 84 67 86 / 20 40 10 10 MLB 73 84 71 84 / 10 40 10 20 VRB 72 85 70 85 / 10 40 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. && SHORT-TERM...CRISTALDI LONG-TERM...PENDERGRAST
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 19, 4:01 AM EDT, 14 hours 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 401 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 192000- COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM- FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER- INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE- ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE- 401 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY. ...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT... THE MIDDLE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN CONTINUES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT FALL IN THE RIVER LEVEL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. BLOTTMAN
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 19, 5:36 PM EDT, 39 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 536 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2004 FLZ044-192215- NORTHERN LAKE- 536 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2004 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY... AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL LOCATED OVER MID FLORIDA LAKES WERE MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. UMATILLA...EUSTIS... MOUNT PLYMOUTH AND CASSIA COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL THE NEXT HALF HOUR. IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. 67
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 7:24 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | MLB | 81 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.