Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Melbourne, FL

September 7, 2004Brevard County, Indian River County, Florida

NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 7, 2004, 12:58 PM EDT for Brevard County, Indian River County, Florida. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 7, 2004, 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC)
Expired
Sep 7, 2004, 2:00 PM EDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
NWS Melbourne, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Brevard County, FL, Indian River County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 9 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-09-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1739 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-09-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 169 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1739 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
686 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
169 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
195 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.0
Supercell composite
6.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KMLB 071658
SVRMLB
FLC009-061-071800-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1256 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BREVARD COUNTY
  NORTHERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
  IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST BREVARD AND WEST INDIAN 
RIVER COUNTIES. THE LINE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...KENNEDY 
SPACE CENTER...MELBOURNE BEACH...WEST MELBOURNE...MICCO...  
SUNTREE...VERO LAKE ESTATES AND MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF
THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MILES AN HOUR...LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2765 8085 2765 8037 2864 8059 2863 8084

$$

KUYPER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 7, 10:02 AM EDT, 2 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 7, 10:02 AM EDT, 2 hours 56 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1002 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES...JUST SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA...
IS STILL A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND HENCE WINDS FIELDS
ACROSS OUR AREA ARE MUCH STRONGER THAN NORMAL.  THIS WAS RESULTING
IN SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS IN CONVERGENCE LINES IN THE MOIST INFLOW
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  PRIMARY CONVERGENCE BAND...WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS THE STRONGEST...IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES TODAY WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING
WOULD BE A THREAT.  GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR
SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL POSE A HAZARD TO ANY BOATERS OUT ON AREA LAKES
SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS FINE.  CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...

***ATTN MARINERS...BUOY 41009 IS ADRIFT***

SEAS STILL RUNNING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG WITH WINDS IN THE
NORTH.  NEARSHORE CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT.  LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TODAY.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

&&

LASCODY
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 7, 5:51 AM EDT, 7 hours 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
072000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY MOIST TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35
MPH. SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ALSO QUITE WARM. NO HAIL IS EXPECTED
AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES.
HOWEVER FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE A HIGH COVERAGE OF
RAIN TODAY. STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY
ONE STORM WILL NOT BE HIGH...THOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXECTED.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE WIND PROFILE SUPPORTS STORMS TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREAS. IF THIS OCCURS...2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...ONTO ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...EXACERBATING THE
FLOODING THREAT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
ON AREA LAKES AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A STRONG NORTHWARD FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT WILL EXIST TODAY...WHICH
CAN KNOCK YOU INTO DEEPER WATER. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 18
AND 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS AROUND 7 FEET.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED BY HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CAUSE
RIVER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER NEAR LAKE
HARNEY...SANFORD AND DELAND...MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECASTED OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOODING NEXT
WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO
MONTIOR THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF HURRICANE IVAN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
IMPACTS...IF ANY...WOULD NOT BE FELT UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

KELLY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 7, 12:43 PM EDT, 15 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1243 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

FLZ047-054-058-147-071730-
INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD-OKEECHOBEE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
1243 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

AT 1243 PM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM LAKE
WASHINGTON IN BREVARD COUNTY TO DOWN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THESE STORMS
ARE APPROACHING US-192. THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH PALM BAY AND BLUE
CYPRESS LAKE AND WILL SHIFT NORTH TOWARDS ROCKLEDGE AND COCOA
BEACH THROUGH 1:15 PM. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

IF THESE STORMS STRENGTHEN A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 12:23 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB2 hr
Sep 7, 4:20 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.