Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT WED SEP  1 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING WEATHER BALLOON DATA SHOWS DEEP EAST FLOW WHICH IS PUSHING
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN VERY QUICKLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC ARE MOVING TOWARD THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS AND A FEW OF THESE MAY CROSS THE COASTLINE. BUT
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT ONTO THE PENINSULA WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DOMINATING...IT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS SO INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL BE LESS. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL ONLY TWEAK GRAPHICAL WINDS AND TEMPS AND UPLOAD
TO WEB PAGE SHORTLY.

ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO PREDICT AN EXACT LANDFALL
LOCATION...FRANCES IS CLEARLY A SERIOUS THREAT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE
ISSUED AS EARLY AS 5 PM TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...SIG WAVES TIED MAINLY TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE COAST. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES EXPECTED DURING
THURSDAY ASCD WITH THE APPROACH OF FRANCES. WITH FORECAST UPDATE
WILL TWEAK TODAYS SEA HEIGHTS BASED ON LATEST BUOY READINGS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KELLY
MARINE...PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
639 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
011900-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
639 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS TO MOVE WEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A 3 FOOT EAST SWELL AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. REMEMBER TO ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THURSDAY EVENING THEN TRACK TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SATURDAY.
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...
BRINGING ROUGH POUNDING SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION TO THE COASTLINE.

THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS THE MAJOR HURRICANE ONSHORE CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE MAY
TRACK A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE RIGHT OR LEFT OF THIS TRACK. THUS...
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH.
NONETHELESS...FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS IMPACTS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD. THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO LET YOUR GUARD DOWN OR BE
COMPLACENT. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT PREPARATION TIME BECOMES VERY
LIMITED AS A HURRICANE NEARS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
HAVE SUPPLIES ON HAND AND A PLAN IN PLACE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE BECOMING AN IMMEDIATE THREAT. THIS COULD BECOME A LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO BEGIN
THINKING ABOUT A PLAN AND MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR YOURSELF AND
FAMILY.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS...

REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN...KNOW YOUR POSSIBLE EVACUATION
ROUTES BEFORE WATCHES OR WARNING ARE RAISED ALONG THE COAST. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR ON THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...MAKE PLANS TO STAY WITH FAMILY...FRIENDS...OR AT A HOTEL
OR SHELTER FOR A FEW DAYS. HAVE A PLAN NOW...DO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF
GUARD.

SECURE IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS...GATHER HURRICANE SUPPLIES...MAKE A
CHECKLIST OF PREPARATIONS YOU WILL NEED TO COMPLETE.

MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.

YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON FRANCES
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

VOLKMER