Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH...AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE AND NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES
FIRST...THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN LAKE...WESTERN ORANGE...SEMINOLE
AND NORTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR...HI RES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COASTLINE. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY COLLIDE WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. OTHER
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR INDIAN RIVER...ST LUCIE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES AS THE OKEECHOBEE LAKE BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE EAST COAST
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY REACH THE VOLUSIA COAST
AND THEN INTENSIFY UPON COLLISION WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. BOATERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKY AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE MARINE WARNINGS ESP NORTH OF COCOA BEACH.

DATA FROM THE 11 AM CAPE WEATHER BALLOON INDICATES SOME DRIER AND
COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...YIELDING A VIL OF THE DAY OF 58
KG/M3...LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. PWATS ARE A VERY TYPICAL 1.83 FOR
AUG IN FL SO STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH...ESP IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS.

TUE...ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY OVER S FL FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIGHTENING OF WINDS ALOFT WL PRODUCE A SEA BREEZE DOMINATED REGIME
WITH AFTERNOON STORMS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. PWATS
REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES WITH GUID POPS SUGGESTING MID RANGE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS OVER THE
AREA.

WED/THU...FORECAST GUIDANCE SHIFTS TO NHC FORECAST OF HURRICANE
FRANCES WHICH DRAWS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON A WNW TRACK. THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WIND FIELD OF FRANCES
PROVIDING STEADILY INCREASING NE FLOW. SOME PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE
WILL PRODUCE A DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON THU AND HAVE
TRIMMED POPS TO LOWER END SCT FOR THIS SCENARIO EACH DAY.

FRI-SAT...CURRENT NHC FORECAST BRINGS CENTER OF FRANCES JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS ARE CERTAINLY HINGING ON BOTH
INTENSITY AND TRACK...GRIDDED FIELDS SHOW INCREASING WINDS AND
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS. 12Z GFS INDICATED A WWD TREND WHICH
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN MODELS. FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
STRENGTH OF ATLANTIC RIDGE. EAST CENTRAL FL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES.

EXTENDED...FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON WHICH DIRECTION
FRANCES TAKES. WILL KEEP SCT POPS IN FORECAST BASED ON SUITABLE
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THANKS FOR COORD MIA/TBW/JAX.

&&

.MARINE...DECREASING GRADIENT FLOW IN RESPONSE TO RIDGE AXIS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE. WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS 2-3 FT. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WITH INCREASING SWELLS TO 4 TO 6 FT ON THU
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON FRI WITH EXPECTED PROXIMITY
TO FRANCES. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN
INDICATED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  74  90 /  20  40  20  30
MCO  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  75  90  76  90 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  73  91  75  89 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
302000-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
1000 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST...EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL AGAIN DELAY THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THEY COLLIDE WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...MAINLY WHERE OUTFLOW...LAKE AND
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM STORMS WILL BE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING OR
DEVELOPING STORM.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND COLLIDE
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
JUST INLAND FROM THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. MOVEMENT WILL BE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WHICH WILL BRING STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...BARRIER ISLANDS AND OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE MID
WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FROM SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOWS.

POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THURSDAY MORNING THEN CURVE NORTHWEST...APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OCEAN SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ROUGH POUNDING SURF AND POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION TO THE COASTLINE. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW CLOSE HURRICANE
FRANCES WILL COME TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OR WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL.
EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT PREPARATION TIME BECOMES VERY LIMITED AS A
HURRICANE NEARS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO HAVE SUPPLIES ON HAND AND A PLAN IN PLACE WELL IN
ADVANCE OF ANY HURRICANE BECOMING AN IMMEDIATE THREAT.

YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON FRANCES
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS REGARDING
FRANCES THAT ARE SPECIFIC TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
238 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

FLZ045-053-144-301930-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
238 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT INDICATED A STORM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING 9 MILES WEST OF
ANIMAL KINGDOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE LIGHTNING STORM INCLUDE BAY HILL...PINE
CASTLE...BELLE ISLE AND DOCTOR PHILLIPS.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED
AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE
OFFER NO PROTECTION.

MOSELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     LIGHTNING        OCOEE                   28.57N 81.53W
08/25/2004                   ORANGE             FL   NEWSPAPER

            *** 1 FATAL, 3 INJ *** ...UPDATED REPORT...4 FOURTH GRADE
            CHILDREN STRUCK BY LIGHTNING WHILE WALKING HOME FROM
            SCHOOL. THE MOST CRITICALLY INJURED STUDENT DIED 5 DAYS
            LATER.

&&

BRAGAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
357 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

FLZ041-046-302045-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-SEMINOLE-
357 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER
NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER LONGWOOD...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE LAKE MARY AND DEBARY.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

BRAGAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
455 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

FLZ141-302145-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
455 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER
EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NEW SMYRNA BEACH...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  A SECOND STORM
WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MAYTOWN...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE DAYTONA BEACH SPEEDWAY AND WILBUR BY THE SEA...AS WELL AS
NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND OAK HILL.

IF THESE STORMS STRENGTHEN FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

BRAGAW