Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDEL ON SYNOPTIC SITUATION TODAY AND
THURSDAY. CURRENT MCC ROLLING INTO CWA FROM MN AND IA LOOKS TO
FOLLOW GFS POSITION. EXPECT MCC TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS REMAIN
VERY STRONG DURING AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CAPES AROUND 2000...
HELICITY AROUND 140...AND LI/S AROUND -7. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
INDICATE 850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS WELL. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK WEAK CAP AND REFIRE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT SURFACE AND 850MB.
THERMAL RIDGE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ALSO PRESENT.

SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SAG THROUGH CWA DURING EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY...THEN LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
AFTERNOON. 850 BARO ZONE LAGS BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CWA. ETA AND GFS ALSO INDICATE FRONTGENISES AND
A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE. CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 1200 WITH LI/S AROUND
-6. GFS ALSO SHOWS 700 MOISTURE AND OMEGA. THESE DYNAMICS INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY...SO
WILL MENTION IN FORECAST.

DRY RIDGE ON TARGET FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER TEMPERATURES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

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