Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING
INTO WEEKEND.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SAG THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY...WHILE COLD UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION. ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH SIMILAR IN PREDICTING STRONG DYNAMICS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CAPES AROUND 1700...LI/S AROUND -5...STRONG Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...700 OMEGA...WBZERO AROUND 8K FT. ALSO...INVERTED V
SOUNDING AND TT/S NEAR 58. WET MICROBURST AND HAIL MOST LIKELY...
ALTHOUGH HELICITY ON ETA AROUND 140. CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EVENING
HOURS WITH GRADUAL STABILIZING BY MID/LATE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE BASED DYNAMICS SHIFT TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. OVERRUNNING OF H850 BARO ZONE EXPECTED
TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA THURSDAY. H500 REMAINS VERY COLD
AND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH REGION. LOTS OF H850
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND H700 OMEGA. WBZERO AROUND 7K FEET. STRONG
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND H850 FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSED ACROSS CWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT REINFORCING COOL BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY FOCUS SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...COLD UNSTABLE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
DAYTIME HEATING ON UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY OVERCOME DRY MID LAYERS
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF COOL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS.

&&

.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
751 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241000-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
751 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SEVERE SQUALL
LINE AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 11 PM. ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR SEVERE WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

GEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
949 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HINGHAM                 43.64N 87.91W
06/23/2004                   SHEBOYGAN          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOCATION NEAR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHEBOYGAN.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT ATKINSON           42.93N 88.84W
06/23/2004                   JEFFERSON          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD LARGE TREES DOWN.

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FILLMORE                43.50N 88.06W
06/23/2004                   WASHINGTON         WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOCATED ALONG HWY H IN NORTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTY. GROVES OF
            NINE INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             MILWAUKEE               43.06N 87.97W
06/23/2004  0.75 INCH        MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOCATED 1/2 MILE WEST OF MILWAUKEE GENERAL MITCHELL
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

0840 PM     TORNADO          MADISON                 43.08N 89.39W
06/23/2004                   DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 MILES SOUTH OF UW-MADISON CAMPUS OR AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF SOUTH PARK STREET AND HWY 151. TRANSFORMERS DAMAGED.

&&

BORGHOFF

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