Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
535 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WX AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

NOSE OF LLJ AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
FEEDING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVR SRN MN/NRN IA. LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD INTO
WI WITH STORMS MAINLY MOVING ACROSS NRN CWA THIS AM/EARLY AFT. 850
MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPER LIFT WILL SHIFT INTO NRN WI LATER THIS
AFT.

SFC WMFNT IS ALREADY MOVING NWD ACROSS NE/IA AND IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO FAR SRN WI LATE THIS AFT. INITIATION ALONG WMFNT WL
DEPEND ON DEGREE OF HEATING. IF ENOUGH BREAKS CAN DEVELOP ALONG
FNT...BELIEVE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE IS ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME CIN FOR SCT STORMS. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE
SINCE MODELS ARE CONTINUALLY PRECIPITATING...BUT UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
AND TEMPS IN 70S ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT
MDT CAPE. 40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM HELICITIES 200-400
J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT IS ADDRESSED IN HWOMKX.

FNTL BNDRY TO RMN OVER SRN WI UNTIL SUN...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND SFC LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS CNTRL WI. UNTIL THEN ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TNT THROUGH SAT NT...MAINLY TIED TO
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LLJ. PWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
RANGE FROM 1.3-1.7 INCHES SUPPORTING THE DEEP CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKEND.
HWO HIGHLIGHTS FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

GEHRING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-221000-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ZAJDEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     TSTM WND GST     HARTFORD                43.32N 88.39W
05/21/2004  61 MPH           WASHINGTON         WI   MESONET

            61 MPH GUST MEASURED BY AUTOMATED SENSOR.

0840 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SW CLINTON              42.56N 88.87W
05/21/2004                   ROCK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN JUST SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON.

0840 AM     TSTM WND GST     GRAFTON                 43.32N 87.95W
05/21/2004  60 MPH           OZAUKEE            WI   MESONET

            60 MPH GUST MEASURED BY AUTOMATED SENSOR.

0842 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTFORD                43.32N 88.39W
05/21/2004                   WASHINGTON         WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN CITY OF HARTFORD.

0843 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BELOIT                  42.52N 89.02W
05/21/2004                   ROCK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN CITY OF BELOIT.

0853 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JANESVILLE              42.68N 89.02W
05/21/2004                   ROCK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN CITY OF JANESVILLE.

&&

WOOD