Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
350 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP AS VRY
ACTIVE WX PATTERN INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL THRU SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING H5 TROF IN WRN US WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG SOUTHWEST UPR FLOW WITH NMRS RIPPLES IN FLOW. A VRY STRONG
WAVE IS DEPICTED BY BOTH ETA/GFS FOR SUNDAY. OVERALL PERSISTENT H2
JET WILL KEEP CWA IN A FAVORED RRQ WITH OCNL UPR DVRG.

STRONG H8 MOIST ADV HELPING TO MAINTAIN TSTM CLUSTERS ACRS CWA.
INCRS IN MOIST REFLECTED IN SFC TDS WITH MANY M60 TDS SPREADING NEWD
INTO THRU SRN WI. CLUSTER EXPECTED TO PEEL AWAY AS MRNG HRS WEAR
ALONG AS H8 SPEED MAX EXITS. MODELS INDICATE TROUGHINESS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER LYING OUT ACRS CWA TOWARDS MIDDAY/ERLY AFTN HRS. ETA CAPES
PUSHING 4K WITH BUFFY LI/S AS LOW AS -9. SO AFTER THESE MRNG
STORMS...COULD VRY WELL BECOME MORE SFC BASED THIS AFTN...THOUGH
SOME CONCERN ON DEGREE OF CLEARING TODAY GIVEN UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER...PER 11/3 IMAGERY.

ATMOS STABILIZES THIS EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND A GOOD
PUSH OF COOLER AIR DOWN THE LAKE WILL PROB MAKE FOR A SHARP
TEMP DROPOFF THIS EVE. PREFER ETA WITH SKEWING ACTION TNGT MORE
WEST OF CWA...THO CONSENSUS OF GFS/NGM IS TO BLANKET ENTIRE CWA
WITH QPF LATE TNGT.

ON FRI MODELS GIVE THE WRM FNT A PUSH NWD BACK INTO CWA. IMPRESSIVE
EHI/S CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED ACRS CWA...INDICATING THE
FAVORABLE SHEAR/CAPE PARAMETERS. CLOUD COVER QUESTION AND LACK OF
A SHORT WAVE ARE NEGATING FACTORS ATTM...BUT STILL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR SVR POTENTIAL.

FRONTAL PLACEMENT APPEARS TO THEN WAFFLE NR SRN WI/NRN IL FOR SAT
AND SUN WITH MORE PERIODS OF STMS. ETA/GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE FOR
SUNDAY WITH FRONT COMING BACK INTO STATE WITH THE APPCH LOW.

RESENT ESF TO CONTINUE WITH THE ADVERTISED WET AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN.

&&

.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
500 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-201000-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
500 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PLATTEVILLE TO FORT ATKINSON TO PORT
WASHINGTON. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

ZAJDEL