Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Milwaukee, WI

October 29, 2004Rock County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 29, 2004, 11:22 PM CDT for Rock County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 29, 2004, 11:22 PM CDT (04:22 UTC)
Expired: Oct 30, 2004, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Rock County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 29, 10:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1017 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1067 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.2
Supercell composite: 5.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KMKX 300422
SVRMKX
WIC105-300500-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1122 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ROCK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  ORFORDVILLE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF BRODHEAD...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ORFORDVILLE AROUND 1130 PM CDT...
  FOOTVILLE...BELOIT AND EVANSVILLE AROUND 1135 PM CDT...
  JANESVILLE AROUND 1140 PM CDT...
  MILTON AND EDGERTON AROUND 1150 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4259 8879 4250 8904 4250 8932 4251 8936
      4270 8936 4284 8924 4284 8900 4283 8899
      4282 8878 4260 8878

$$

DAVIS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 29, 3:00 PM CDT, 8 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 29, 3:00 PM CDT, 8 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA/NGM/GFS/RUC PROGS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD FROM PLAINS. CWA ALREADY WELL
INTO WARM SECTOR SO ATTENTION TURNS TO WEST WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EXPECTED SOON ALONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN
IOWA/MINNESOTA.  LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -6 IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CAPE VALUES AROUND
2000...AWAITING 30 UNIT VORTICITY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEGIN
ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER INDICES LEAN TOWARD A HAIL AND HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER CWA. HOWEVER SOME INDICATORS POINT TO TORNADO
POSSIBILITIES FOR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA EARLY TONIGHT WHERE HELICITY
AND EHI VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN FAVORABLE CATEGORY.

EXPECT RAPID EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS ONCE CONVECTION GETS
GOING. NONETHELESS HAVE OPTED TO GO DRY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
EVEN KEEP FAR EASTERN PARTS OF CWA DRY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN THE LONG TERM...PROGS RAPIDLY MOVE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM CWA
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT ALL LEVELS
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER CWA
INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE UPWARD MOVEMENT OF
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEEN AS WELL.

WEATHER TO BECOME QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION.

&&

.MKX...NONE.

ZAJDEL

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 29, 11:57 AM CDT, 11 hours 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1157 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-301000-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
1157 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OF IOWA
TODAY AND PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM.

UNSEASONABLY WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL INTERACT ACT WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIR AND COLD FRONT TO CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SEVERE
SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. PERSONS SHOULD STAY TUNE TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

GEHRING

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 29, 10:48 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1048 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELMONT                 42.74N 90.33W
10/29/2004                   LAFAYETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

GD

Local storm report, Oct 29, 10:50 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     TSTM WND GST     KENOSHA                 42.58N 87.85W
10/29/2004  50 MPH           KENOSHA            WI   MESONET

&&

GD

Local storm report, Oct 29, 10:52 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1052 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     TSTM WND GST     MINERAL POINT           42.86N 90.18W
10/29/2004  49 MPH           IOWA               WI   MESONET

&&

GD

Local storm report, Oct 29, 11:02 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     TSTM WND GST     BARNEVELD               43.01N 89.90W
10/29/2004  48 MPH           IOWA               WI   MESONET

&&

GD

Special weather statement, Oct 29, 11:18 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

WIZ047-051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072-300800-
DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN LAKE-JEFFERSON-KENOSHA-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-
RACINE-SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
1118 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR GREEN
LAKE...DODGE...FOND DU LAC...WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...
WALWORTH...SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH 300 AM CDT.

DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...ONE INCH HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE EXPECTED.

EISE

Local storm report, Oct 29, 11:22 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1122 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLACK EARTH             43.14N 89.75W
10/29/2004  54 MPH           DANE               WI   MESONET

&&

GD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 29, 9:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Kenosha, Racine	56 min
Oct 29, 10:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette	58 min
Oct 29, 11:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	43 min
Oct 29, 11:33 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		117 min
Oct 29, 11:33 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		117 min
Oct 29, 11:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Jefferson, Rock, Walworth	64 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.