Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING SITUATION FAIRLY WELL WHILE
MESO-ETA SEEMS TO BE NEARLY CLUELESS. I WAS ABOUT TO IGNORE GFS
STRONG WIND FIELDS BUT 05Z AND 06Z BUOYS MATCHING VERY WELL WITH GFS
FORECAST SO WILL NOT VEER TOO FAR AWAY FROM IT. LARGE MCS OVER GULF
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD AND GFS HAS IT MOVING INTO THE PENINSULA
BY 12Z WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW THAT MOVES ONSHORE BY 18Z.
ALSO GOOD THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH
SURFACE WINDS REMAINING S TO SE SO DECENT SURFACE INFLOW. IN
ADDITION, UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALSO IN PLACE SO ALL PARAMETERS IN PLACE
FOR ACTIVE WX DAY FOR THE REGION. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED
FOR NORTHERN ZONES AND LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MENTION OF SOME SEVERE.
MIGHT HAVE A TEMPORARY LULL TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND SLATED FOR
TUESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. COLD FRONT STLL PROGGED TO COME THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OF RAIN AND MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH WILL GO CLOSER TO GFS THAN
MESO-ETA WHICH MEANS WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND NEAR
20 KT ON THE GULF SIDE. THIS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS GFS AS IT SHOWS
GALE FORCE BY 12Z BUT THEN QUICKLY BACKS OFF. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT. SO SEAS REMAIN HIGH DUE TO INITIAL STRONGER WINDS AND THEN A
DIRECTION OPPOSING GULF STREAM CURRENT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE GUISE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY KEEP DEW POINTS
/RH QUITE HIGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE AND
DSI MAY BROACH 70...BUT AS MENTIONED...WITH RH HIGH...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BRINGS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RH MAY NEAR 40
WEDNESDAY AND SURFACE WINDS MAY BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15
MPH...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. THURSDAY...WINDS DECREASE BUT RH LOWER
WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW INTERIOR. AGAIN...SOMETHING TO
MONITOR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH   84 71 85 60 / 80 40 70 20
FORT LAUDERDALE   83 71 84 62 / 70 40 70 40
MIAMI             84 72 84 61 / 70 40 70 40
NAPLES            80 71 77 62 / 70 60 70 20
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SCA ALL WATERS EXCEPT LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
&&

BRABANDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
513 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-120300-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
513 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING

...THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...
...A FEW COULD BE STRONG PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST COAST...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING. A SQUALL LINE IS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND AREAS AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE LATER TONIGHT.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG
SOUTH WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING
MUCH DRYER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE
FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN CASE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT INCREASES AND ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

PS