Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE FROM ABOUT 850 MBS ON UP IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MIAMI SOUNDING THIS
MORNING ALSO CAME IN WITH 1.60 INCHES OF PWAT. THE COMBINATION OF
THE HIGHS AND THE LOW PWATS HAS KEPT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
FROM NOT FORMING SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THERE
IS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. SO PLAN ON LEAVING LOW SCATTERED WORDING OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND ISOLATED OVER REST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO DIED DOWN LATE THIS EVENING.
BUT WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...PLAN ON
LEAVING ISOLATED WORDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREAS...WHILE TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY
MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US DURING THIS
TIME...AND PUSH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION OVER THE CWA...AND PUSH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY INTO THE INTERIOR AND AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FORECAST WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT DEPENDANT ON
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE NHC IS
FORECASTING HIM TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. IF CHARLEY MOVES
MORE WEST THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...SOUTH FLORIDA COULD SEE ONLY
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
IF CHARLEY MOVES MORE EAST THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...SOUTH FLORIDA
COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO AT THIS
TIME PLAN ON LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE HIGH END SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL CHARLEYS PATH IS MORE
CLEAR.

ONCE CHARLEY MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET BACK TO AN EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY OVER ALL OF THE CWA
WATERS. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WHILE
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS GOING UP OVER THE GULF WATERS...THERE
COULD BE A NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE GULF
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 2 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL THEN DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
THE GULF WATERS...AS THE WIND WILL COME DOWN AGAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
BUT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 FEET
INTO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FROM THE EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 77 92 / 30 40 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 80 91 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI           78 91 79 92 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES          76 91 77 91 / 20 30 20 30
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
858 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-102154-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
858 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...VERY HIGH RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER ATLANTIC...
...A MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING...
...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 INTERIOR AREAS AWAY FROM COASTS...

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC.  THE TIME OF GREATEST THREAT WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE
MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS AS
HIGH AS 30 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDER
-STORMS. THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WESTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

HIGH HUMIDITY AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE WILL MEAN
THAT HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100 TO 105 IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

FLZ067-068-101906-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
111 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PALM BEACH...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.  LOCATIONS THAT CAN EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS WILL INCLUDE JUPITER...RIVIERA BEACH...THE
ACREAGE...ROYAL PALM BEACH...CALOOSA.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO WEST PALM BEACH AND
WELLINGTON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

FLZ067-068-102021-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
226 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM.  THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH WELLINGTON...FLORIDA GARDENS...LAKE
WORTH...BOYNTON BEACH AND DELRAY BEACH BETWEEN 230 PM AND 330 PM. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE
GENERALLY DISSIPATED OR WEAKENED.