Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF
FLORIDA THIS MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER
THE LONE STAR STATE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS
CAUSING THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA TO BE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DRIVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE PWAT WAS 2.08 INCHES
FROM THE MIA SOUNDING THIS MORNING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW STRONG
STORMS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...SOME DRIER AIR ON SATELLITE OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS WORKED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO PLAN ON MENTIONING A FEW STORM COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR THIS EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WEST INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO PLAN ON
LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MOST OF THE CWA
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND
THE TROPICAL WAVE. FOR THE WEST COAST METRO REGIONS PLAN ON LEAVING
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...AS THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. SO PLAN ON LEAVING NUMEROUS ACTIVITY
OVER MOST OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY...THEN NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT WILL GET PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
US EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
PUSH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN GET PUSH SOUTH AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
US. SO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GET BACK INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO THE S/SE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO THE BOATING WEATHER SHOULD BE GOOD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT
FOR THE DODGING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND WINDS LIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 91 75 91 / 40 60 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 77 89 / 40 60 40 50
MIAMI           76 90 77 90 / 40 60 40 40
NAPLES          78 88 77 90 / 40 50 30 50
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
920 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-061830-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
920 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UNUSUAL MID SUMMER FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE A WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...FAVORING THE GULF COAST AND INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY AND
THE URBAN ATLANTIC COAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS
40 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION SET UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

FLZ069-070-061345-
EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN COLLIER-
914 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

...HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO METRO
COLLIER...

A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING
INTO METRO COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED A HALF INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 15 MILES AN
HOUR. MOTORISTS IN THE NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND AREAS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND DRIVE CAUTIOUSLY WHEN ENCOUNTERING REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE
TO HEAVY RAINS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30
MILES AN HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

FLZ072-074-061700-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-
1233 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH METRO DADE AND BROWARD...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OUT OVER THE
EVERGLADES THAT ARE DIMINISHING WILL BE MOVING THROUGH METRO DADE
AND SOUTH BROWARD COUNTIES CAUSING WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MILES AN HOUR.
THE WIND GUSTS WILL ONLY LAST A MINUTE OR TWO BUT COULD BE A CONCERN
FOR AVIATION OR MARINE INTERESTS AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

FLZ066-067-061845-
HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
210 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CLEWISTON ACROSS LAKE HARBOR TO SOUTH BAY WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
BELLE GLADE AND PAHOKEE AREAS BY 230 PM EDT.

DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAINS NEAR THREE QUARTERS INCH
PER HOUR...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MILES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHORELINE COMMUNITIES. RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTH LAKE
SHORELINE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.