Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THAT SYSTEM SW
THROUGH NORTH CNTRL FL AND ACROSS THE GULF INTO BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
COMBINATION OF C-BRZS, OUTFLOWS, AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OF
AROUND 2.2 INCHES PER 12Z SNDG AND LATEST GPSMET WATER VAPOR
RETRIEVALS SHOULD MAKE FOR A REPEAT FROM YESTERDAY. MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH MAIN CHANGE BEING INCREASING POPS FROM 70
TO 80 FOR BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST. OTHER THAN THAT...12 SNDG SHOWED MID LVLS A TAD MORE
UNSTABLE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 35 MPH IS GOOD AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF PEA
SIZE HAIL IN SOME AREAS YESTERDAY...TODAYS WET BULB ZERO HGT CAME
UP HIGHER SO ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL IS UNLIKELY.
LIGHTNING...WNDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AGAIN THE MAIN THREATS. DESPITE THE FACT THE 12 SNDG SHOWS
STORM MOTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...STORMS REGENERATING
AROUND THE SAME AREAS LIKE THEY DID YESTERDAY COULD RESULT IN STREET
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MARINE...FCST ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM T D 1
ACROSS CENTRAL FLA INTO GULF TO A WITHERING LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE ABSORBED BY STRENGTHENING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD SE
U.S. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH AND ABSORB T D 1
PROJECTED TO BE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN EFFECT TO S FLA WILL
BE A CONTINUOUS SW FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGH TO NW AND HIGH PRES
ANCHORED TO SE. PWATS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES TODAY INTO MID WEEK
WITH SOME POSSIBLE DRYING TOWARD THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...S FLA
...WITH THIS PATTERN REMAINING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 DAYS ...CAN EXPECT DIURNAL HIGHEST POPS INTERIOR AND E COAST
THROUGH WEEK. DUE TO THE HIGH PWAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY AND WITH MOST OF S FLA ALREADY DAMP...LOW LYING/FLOOD
PRONE AREAS VULNERABLE TO MINOR FLOODING TODAY AND MON. EVENING
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALL AREAS BUT NOCTURNALLY MAINLY OVER W
COAST AND OUT OVER ATLC WATERS. CANNOT ARGUE WITH GUIDANCE POPS BUT
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE WITH CLOUD COVER BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW/AROUND CLIMO AT BEST/WORST.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT ZFP PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT FOUR FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SW WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES NO
SWELL ALONG E COAST FROM T D 1. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 70 40 70 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 89 76 / 70 40 60 40
MIAMI           89 76 90 75 / 70 40 60 40
NAPLES          88 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 30
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-012200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...HIGH RISK OF LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTERNOON...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND BECOME NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH....LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO STORMS
REGENERATING AND MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS. WHERE THIS
OCCURS...STREET FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

FLZ067-071-011715-
EASTERN COLLIER-PALM BEACH WESTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-
1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

AT 1240 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM PAHOKEE TO THE BIG CYPRESS
RESERVATION MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. RADAR INDICATED
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. THE LINE WILL BE CROSSING HIGHWAY 27 IN
WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY, AND SECTIONS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 IN BROWARD COUNTY, IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

FLZ067-068-071-072-011730-
EASTERN COLLIER-PALM BEACH WESTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-
100 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPRAOCHING OR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...

AT 100 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS LEADING EDGE
EXTENDING FROM 5 TO 10 MILES EAST OF PORT MAYACA AND PAHOKEE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BELLE GLADE, OKEELANTA, AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF BROWARD COUNTY. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25
MPH. RADAR INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. THE LINE WILL
BE CROSSING HIGHWAY 27 IN SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY, AND
SECTIONS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 IN BROWARD
COUNTY, IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO.

FURTHER EAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
LINE THAT GOES FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY OR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PS