Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AND
PUSH INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY YET ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE VERY
SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE CWA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM AMX SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL COOLED A
LITTLE DOWN TO AROUND -9C. SO WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST
REGIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO PLAN ON LEAVING ISOLATED ACTIVITY UP
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE ON
FRIDAY INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
ALLOW A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO PLAN ON RAISING THE POPS A LITTLE
OVER ALL OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL THEN GET PUSH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
RETREATS BACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO MOVE BACK INTO EXTREME SOUTH
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN US.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL WORK BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO THE POPS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE
SCATTERED CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA...BUT THE EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS WILL BE THE BEST FAVOR AREAS FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY DO TO THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
LATE NEXT WEEK ALLOWING THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY FROM
THE EAST COAST METRO REGIONS TO THE WEST COAST METRO REGIONS LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY E HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS...BUT NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS...EXCEPT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN STILL CAUSE SOME BRUSHFIRES OVER THE EAST
METRO REGIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL RELATIVITY
DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 94 76 94 / 40 60 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 78 91 / 40 50 30 40
MIAMI           79 93 79 93 / 30 50 30 40
NAPLES          78 90 78 90 / 10 40 20 30
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-152200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING MAINLY INTERIOR AND EAST...
...FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND EAST COAST...
...HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 MOST AREAS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD ALSO BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND MOSTLY LOWER 90S IN THE
METRO ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
IT FEEL AS IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE 105 TO 110.

ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO STORMS MOTION THAT
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PS