Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL A
LITTLE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO HAVING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
MOVE TO EAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WAS CAUSING THE STEERING FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS ALSO DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE EAST COASTLINE OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
ALONG IT.

ONCE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE GET TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREA THIS
EVENING AND COLLIDE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...THERE COULD BE
A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT...AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW A FEW OF THE GULF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE
INTO THE WEST COAST METRO REGIONS. SO PLAN ON LEAVING AN ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN US CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DRY AIR OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THERE
SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO REGIONS EACH AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EAST COST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST REGIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST COAST REGIONS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE BACK NORTH TO AROUND
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS...AND SHIFT THE ACTIVITY FROM THE EAST
COAST METRO REGIONS TO THE WEST COAST METRO REGIONS BY MIDDLE TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE HIGHER IN
AND NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT EXPECT NO PROBLEM ON THE WATERS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 94 76 93 / 30 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 78 91 / 30 30 30 30
MIAMI           78 93 78 92 / 30 30 30 30
NAPLES          77 90 77 90 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-142200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
815 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING MAINLY INTERIOR AND EAST...
...HEAT INDICES TO 100 TO 105 ALL AREAS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY AND OVER THE METRO AREAS OF PALM
BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S IN THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND MOSTLY LOWER 90S IN THE METRO ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE 100 TO 105.

ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.