Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC AND UPR LVL ANALYSES SHOW RIDGE HAS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CNTRL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WITH NOT
MUCH LEFT OF THE WAVE THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...IF ANYTHING IT MOVED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE KEYS EARLIER
TODAY. ANALYSES AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH MYNN 12Z SNDG COMING
WITH A PWAT OF 1.23 INCHES THIS MORNING WHILE MIA CAME WITH 1.8.
HOWEVER...LATEST GPSMET HRLY TIME SERIES SHOW THAT PWAT ACROSS MIA
HAVE COME DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.4 WHILE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA IT REMAINS NEAR 1.8 OR HIGHER. THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN LOWER POPS TONIGHT (EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE THE PBI
COAST...WILL MONITOR EVOLUTION OF ACTIVITY OFFSHORE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT IT SEEMS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO LEADING EDGE
OF DRIER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH) AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LVL
RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT MID LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT LEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ALL THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER POPS IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS ON
THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EXTENDED.

.EXTENDED...MID LVL RIDGE WILL AGAIN SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
WHILE LOW LVL AND SFC RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...SAME PCPN PATTERNS THAT WE
HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL HAVE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE MOST PART THE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE. SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 89 77 90 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI           77 90 77 91 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES          73 92 73 92 / 40 40 40 40
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
921 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-302200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
921 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS INLAND AND GULF COAST
REGION TODAY...

A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACHES OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THE RIP CURRENTS TO OCCUR WILL AROUND THE TIME OF
LOW TIDE WHICH OCCURS FROM 1230 TO 130 PM. SWIMMERS SHOULD ONLY
SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH
PATROLS.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR
SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1257 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

FLZ069-070-GMZ656-301730-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN COLLIER-
1257 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND...

AT 1 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY
INCLUDING PARTS OF NAPLES AND APPROACHING MARCO ISLAND. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NAPLES MARCO ISLAND METRO AREAS
AND INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

PERSONS ON LAND AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS APPROACHING ONE
INCH PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL. MARINERS SHOULD BE SEEKING SAFE HARBOR AND REMAIN THERE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.