Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004

.UPDATE...MIAMI SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS MOIST...ALTHOUGH NOT
EXCESSIVELY WITH A PWAT OF 1.79. IT HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...THE
H5 TEMP IS NOW AT -8.1 AND THE CAPE >4000 J/KG. SO WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE AFFECTS...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN FLOW IS SSW...AND SO INHERITED
POP FIELDS LOOK GOOD...WITH HIGHEST TSRA CHANCES ACROSS NE PORTIONS
OF THE SERVICE AREA. LOCAL WET MICROBURST PARAMETERS SUGGEST A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. WILL ADD
MENTION OF THIS TO THE HWO.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOSTLY FLAT SEAS. C-MAN OB WINDS CAME UP A BIT PAST FEW HOURS
BUT NOW ARE COMING DOWN. MARINE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS TODAY
PREVAILING IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE...AND HAVE NO ARGUMENTS AGAINST
THIS. /57

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH IS WEAKENING
AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE KEYS TO
MOVE NORTH TO THE MID CWA BY WEDNESDAY AND TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST AND SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT ENHANCING OUR PRECIP. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
MAINLY INLAND.

MEAN LAYER FLOW TODAY STILL SOUTHWEST AND WITH SEABREEZE INITIATION
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS NEAR 2...I HAVE
DECIDED TO RAISE THE MAX POPS TO 50 PERCENT WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE LAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE REACHES
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY...BASICALLY THE SAME AREAS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS BUT A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY ON...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST WITH MAINLY NOCTURNAL AND MORNING ACTIVITY
EAST COAST.
&&

.MARINE...CONTINUED GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY
LATE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WE COULD APPROACH CAUTION LEVELS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGH AND WINDS
RELATIVELY LOW.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 93 76 91 78 / 50 30 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 90 79 / 50 20 30 30
MIAMI           91 79 91 79 / 40 20 20 20
NAPLES          90 77 90 76 / 20 10 20 20
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1053 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-222200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
1053 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS INTERIOR AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND MIAMI METRO AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
OF UP TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO SOLICIT
RAINFALL AND WIND OBSERVATIONS...MOST LIKELY OVER PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTIES.

57