Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO HAS BEEN MORE ACTIVE TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT
OF A SMALL UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS IT.  THIS SHOULD BE PAST TONIGHT
AND AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF OUR ZONES TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH.  IN THE MEANTIME AN AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS OUR ZONES TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP THE EVENING CONVECTION DOWN.  THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SHOULD STILL COME INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTER IT
STRUGGLES PAST THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING AROUND THE
GREATER ANTILLES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
SOME BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL U.S. BY
LATE IN THE WEEK TROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THIS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BEING ABLE TO POSITION ITS RIDGE LINE TO THE
NORTH OF OUR ZONES WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE DAYTIME CONVECTION MORE TO
THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  SO OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL
HAVE MORE OF A NIGHT/MORNING REGIME BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE COULD
MOVE IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...CONTINUED GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MOST OF THE PERIOD.  BY
LATE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WE COULD APPROACH CAUTION LEVELS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGH AND WINDS
RELATIVELY LOW.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 93 77 92 / 10 30 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 92 79 90 / 00 20 05 10
MIAMI           78 91 79 91 / 00 20 05 10
NAPLES          77 89 76 91 / 00 30 10 10
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2004

FLZ063-066>068-071>074-212229-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-GLADES-HENDRY-MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-
WESTERN MIAMI DADE-
500 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH HEAT INDEX OVER METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CREATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
BEGIN OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN MOVE OVER THE METRO AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX WILL REACH FROM
105 TO 110 DEGREES...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST BROWARD AND SOUTHEAST PALM
BEACH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEXES IN THIS RANGE CAN CAUSE
HEAT CRAMPS AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DURING THE
HOTTEST TIME OF DAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON HEAT AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK TO CHANGE TO A PATTERN OF NOT AS HOT
WEATHER AND WITH MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ069-070-075-212229-
EASTERN COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-WESTERN COLLIER-
500 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS..

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AS THE WEATHER PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTS LATER THIS WEEK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2004

FLZ074-211845-
DADE METROPOLITAN-
157 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING WESTERN MIAMI METRO...

AT 2 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE FROM KENDALL NORTHWARD TO DORAL. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DG