Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR ZONES EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED.  SO THIS SHOULD PROBABLY KEEP THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FROM THE EASTERN ZONES.  ALSO SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR TO OUR EAST SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE MIAMI GPS DATA AND IS ANOTHER REASON TO
LEAVE THE PROBABILITIES OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES.  THE UPPER WAVE
HAS ALSO TRIED TO BRING SOME OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOISTURE INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THURSDAY AFTER THE SOUTHERN WAVE HELPS DEEPEN IT TONIGHT AND
ADDITIONAL WAVES FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. DROP DOWN INTO IT THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OUR SURFACE RIDGE AND PUT THE PENINSULA
UNDER A BASICALLY NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SEA BREEZES ON BOTH COASTS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME
WE SHOULD SEE OUR UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BACK UNDERNEATH IT.  SINCE THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY NORTH OF US IT SHOULD BUILD BACK TO THIS
POSITION.  SO BY THE WEEKEND WE SHOULD GO INTO AN EASTERLY FLOW
PRECIPITATION PATTERN.  THIS IS AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTERIOR AND
WEST AND NIGHTTIME AND MORNING EAST.

THE EASTERLY WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A MONDAY
ARRIVAL.  IF IT KEEPS ITS PRESENT STRENGTH WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER BOTH THE LAND AND WATER. AFTER ITS PASSAGE
WE SHOULD SEE A DROPOFF IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE ACT TO
SUPPRESS THE PRECITIPATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...NO BIG CHANGE IN THE WINDS UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF TO OUR NORTH BY THE WEEKEND.  AT THAT TIME THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO MORE OF A EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER WHERE IT DOES NOT RAIN THE
GROUND WILL STILL BE DRY SO THE FIRE DANGER WILL STILL HIGH OVER
MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 91 75 90 / 10 50 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 77 89 / 00 30 10 50
MIAMI           78 91 77 90 / 00 30 10 50
NAPLES          73 91 74 89 / 00 20 10 30
&&

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>068-070-071-022200-
EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-
500 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105...

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO THE POSSIBILTY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR COUNTIES...AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE MORE FREQUENT AND
THOSE INDIVIDUALS OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND
SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHES.

BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE SHOWERS BEGIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN CLIMG INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO
100 TO 105. IF GOING OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND AVOID
STRENOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.

NO HAZARDOUS OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME AN ALMOST
DAILY OCCURENCE. LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF
EACH DAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FLZ069-072>075-022200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-MAINLAND MONROE-
WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
500 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY INTERIOR...
...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105...
...POSSIBLE SMOKE AFFECTING I 75 AND WESTERN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR INLAND BUT ALL
WHO GO OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIB EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 100 TO
105.

A FIRE IN WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY JUST NORTH OF I 75 SPREAD QUITE A
BIT A SMOKE OVER THE AREA LAST EVENING. WINDS BLEW THE SMOKE NORTH.
BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND SOME SMOKE MAY DRIFT
SOUTH BACK OVER I 75 AND INTO WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. MOTORISTS
NEED TO EXERCISE SOME CAUTION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE POSSIBLILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ALMOST A DAILY
OCCURENCE AS THE RAINY SEASON CONTINUES TO WIND UP. LIGHTNING
WILL BE A CONCERN EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.