Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1138 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

.UPDATE...A TRAILING TROUGH STILL EXISTS SOUTH OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JEANNE...LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING.  SCATTEROMETER WINDS THIS MORNING SHOWED A CONFLUENT AXIS
STRETCHING FROM T.D. JEANNE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WIND
CONFLUENCE - FROM SOUTHWESTERLIES FEEDING INTO T.D. JEANNE...TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING IN...IS WHAT IS
LEADING TO THIS NICE BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS WITHIN THIS CONFLUENT
ZONE...WHICH LIES FROM THE GULF ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY...EAST TO THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. PWAT IS NEAR 2 AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO A VERY
STEAMY 77-80F ACROSS SE FL. BEST CHANCE FOR TRAINING (RESULTING IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS >2) TO OCCUR IS ACROSS THE MIAMI AND
FT. LAUDERDALE METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED THIS CONCERN
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. /DG

&&

.EARLIER MORNING UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AFFECTING MUCH OF COLLIER COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZFP TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THESE ZONES TODAY. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THE
REST OF THE INTERIOR...AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
MAKE ITS WAY FURTHER INLAND AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. /DG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE FEEDING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN NORTH INTO WHAT REMAINS OF JEANNE IS VERY CLOSE TO
SOUTH FLORIDA BUT APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST. AT MIDNIGHT SATELLITE
SHOWED THE MOISTURE TONGUE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THEN NORTH NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVER THE WATER SO FAR TONIGHT...BUT THE
PROXIMITY OF HIGHER MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER LAND
TODAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT MIAMI WAS OVER 2.2 INCHES BUT MESOETA SHOWS
DECREASING VALUES THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE
METRO ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH THAT SCENARIO AND
60 POP FOR THE METRO AREAS.

AS JEANNE MOVES AWAY THE SUPPRESSED RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH GRADUALLY
BUILDS BACK NORTH. TODAY...AS IT IS STILL SOUTH OF US...PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH MEANS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS METRO ATLANTIC COAST. BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...SEA
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED. BY
THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MEANING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS INTERIOR AND GULF COASTS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. WILL
NOT ACCEPT SUCH STRONG WINDS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION AND ALSO TREND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS UPWARD BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE STILL IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT FOWEY
AND AT WEST END BAHAMAS SO WILL RELUCTANTLY KEEP SCEC FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN TODAY SO DAY SHIFT UPDATE MAY BE ABLE
TO DROP THE HEADLINE. RIDGE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
MEANS LIGHT WINDS NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1107 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

FLZ063-066>075-282200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
1107 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

...ISOLATED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...

THERE WILL BE A RATHER HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND CONVERGING WINDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN AS
WELL. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE
AREA...ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN METRO AREAS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MINOR URBAN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.