Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE ISO
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A SFC LOW WILL CONT TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THEN TRACK
EWD TO IL BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR STRONG SRLY WINDS SUNDAY WITH BORDERLINE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND AMBLE
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

SVR WX IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS A POSSIBLE MCS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A
CHC OF TSTMS TUE NITE-WED NITE.

A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU-FRI PROVIDING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER. A WARMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-301100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
308 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SWC