Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SCT TSRAS STARTING TO FIRE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. AXIS OF
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO CORRESPOND WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2200 J/KG ACRS
THE DELTA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONT TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTN BEFORE DYING OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACRS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING A
STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY ON TAP FOR TUE. HARD TO PICK OUT A
TRIGGER TO HELP KICK OFF TSTMS BUT HEATING SHOULD DO. WL GO WITH CHC
POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION. A BETTER TRIGGER MOVES
INTO THE AREA WED AFTN IN THE FORM OF A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE.
THIS WL KICK OFF MORE PLENTIFUL CONVECTION WED. CDFNT STARTS TO MOVE
INTO NW AR AND S CNTRL MO WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP EXPECTED THU.

FRI-MON...CDFNT WL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE MID SOUTH FRI
AFTN/NIGHT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIP. GFS INDICATES
FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS...BRINGING THE
RETURN OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
430 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
430 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ADVISED TO KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS THIS
WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.