Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...

19Z SFC MAP PLACES THE REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE VORT MAX WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT REGION WITH LESSER
CHANCES GOING NORTHWARD. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH...OR SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER VORT
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE JUST EXITING WEST TN AND NE MS BY 12Z
AND MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY IN THE MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS EVEN POSSIBLE. BY AFTERNOON SFC-BASED CAPES WILL
EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND LIS WILL FALL BELOW -4 ACROSS THE REGION.
MESOETA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS (PERHAPS DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE SFC FRONT
BACK NEAR TULSA) AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...WEST TN
AND NW MS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOMORROW. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND WET-BULB ZEROS AROUND 10000FT...LARGE HAIL
WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS POSSIBLE. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH SHEAR IN PLACE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. SO IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINEAR MULTICELLULAR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN.

FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MESOETA SUGGESTING LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY AND HINDER
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF WE WERE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THAT OF FRIDAY. SOME HAIL/SOME LOCAL WINDS BUT NOT ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AS A STRONG VORT MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. GFS SHOWING LOW
THICKNESS AND 850 TEMPS AND MEX NUMBERS SUGGESTING TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 40S OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH UPPER
30S POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DELTA TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO
RELATIVELY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN
MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SLOW WARMUP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
WILL OCCUR BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

VALLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-301100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
315 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TO JACKSON
TO OXFORD. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...THE THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

VALLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
818 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

MSZ021-300200-
YALOBUSHA MS-
818 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...YALOBUSHA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF SCOBEY AT 818 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

PEOPLE IN YALOBUSHA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.