Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
200 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT KNQA RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG THE
TN/MS BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY...BRINGING MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST AREA TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS AREA WILL BE
RIGHT NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WHERE HELICITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 200
M2/S2. CAPE VALUES WILL ALSO BE NEAR 2000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S NEAR 70 IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
MOVE SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THIS BOUNDARY...DYNAMICS REALLY
DECREASE...THUS THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASE THE FURTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MAY HAVE EVEN DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP FOR NOW.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING LOCATED OVER ESSENTIALLY THE SAME
AREA(NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/MO BOOTHEEL) OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS
AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. A SHARP CONTRAST
BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA. SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
FRONT WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA AT 12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
WET AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA. FRONT WILL STILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAVING CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE
MIDSOUTH.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
MEM 80/64 79/62 76 32342
MKL 77/61 75/59 74 63532
JBR 74/62 71/58 71 66645
TUP 81/61 82/60 79 21111

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
400 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM WEINER ARKANSAS
TO BLYTHEVILLE ARKANSAS...NORTH TO WARDELL MISSOURI FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...BUT NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS TO PARSONS TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

KRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
909 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ036-MSZ001-TNZ088-221500-
CRITTENDEN AR-DE SOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
909 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CRITTENDEN...DESOTO AND
SHELBY COUNTIES.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SIMSBORO AT 909
AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE. VERY HEAVY
RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IS
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...DESOTO AND SHELBY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF BARTLETT...EARLE...HORN LAKE...MARION...MILLINGTON...OLIVE
BRANCH...SOUTHAVEN AND WEST MEMPHIS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.