Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
955 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...

AN MCS OVER N CNTRL AR IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SEWD. LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. STILL SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SVR WIND
GUST COULD COME OUT OF IT AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN PART OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...SVR WATCH #547 HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE SITUATION.

ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER
TODAY BUT UNCERTAIN OF THE EWD EXTENT. CURRENT FCST HAS ONLY 10-14
POPS E OF THE MS RVR AND MAY NEED TO BE INCREASEED BY A FEW NOTCHES
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ANOTHER MCS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NW BUT UNCERTAIN ON
ITS SEWD EXTENT. THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SE STATES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
STALLING TO THE N OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE
WX WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND OFF AND ON CHCS OF SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1155 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
1155 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM NOW
THROUGH 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RAVENDEN                36.24N 91.25W
07/04/2004                   LAWRENCE           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN

1120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
07/04/2004                   LAWRENCE           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
07/04/2004                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SOME
            BUSINESSES AND HOMES.

1140 AM     TSTM WND GST     WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
07/04/2004  80 MPH           LAWRENCE           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

1140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
07/04/2004                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            FIVE LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN RESIDENTIAL YARD

&&

JFB