Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1015 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT KNQA RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS
MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
1020 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH. SINCE THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE VERY UNSTABLE THESE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. IN
ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE MUCH OF
THIS WEEK RESULTING IN A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SJM