Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A STATIONARY FRONT FROM MIDDLE TN
THROUGH NORTHEAST MS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR OXFORD MS. A
COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN LA.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ENOUGH SUN HAS POKED THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND
AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL.

THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR IN THE COLD POCKET ITSELF IS
SUBSIDING...PREVENTING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS COLD POCKET THERE IS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH CAN ADD
TO THE INSTABILITY ALREADY PRESENT. SO...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS WEST TN AND NORTH MS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY THIS EVENING EAST DUE
TO TIMING OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NO SYSTEMS AROUND. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BOTH DAYS WITH MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS. 850 TEMPS
AROUND +12 ON FRIDAY CORRELATE TO TEMPS NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOW 80S.
850 TEMPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER SATURDAY TRANSLATING INTO LOW TO MID
80S.

THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE POPS IN MAINLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GFS HITS ON A COMPLEX RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLN SINCE THIS COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED
WITH NO OBVIOUS SYSTEMS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION INTO MONDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL NEARBY BUT BY TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL
NORTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...PRETTY MUCH DEALING WITH HEAT OF THE
DAY VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

VALLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
1033 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

VALLE