Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CST FRI MAR 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT TO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROF WILL THEN
FLATTEN OUT AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN STATES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE NATION AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND
CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CARVING A DEEP TROF IN THE EAST
SUNDAY THEN EXIT THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME A BROAD
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE CARVES A
TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS A
THIRD TROF DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT THE MID SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BUT ONLY CAUSE CLOUDINESS. A WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JCL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CST FRI MAR 5 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061200-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
335 PM CST FRI MAR 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCKENZIE TO JACKSON TO SOMERVILLE TO BATESVILLE.
THE AREA INCLUDES JACKSON...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...OXFORD AND
TUPELO. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.