Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 180000
FFSMEM
MSC135-180100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

AT 655 PM CDT...WEATHER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY RAIN WAS 
BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE VERY SOUTHERN TIP OF TALLAHATCHIE 
COUNTY. 

CITIES AFFECTED THROUGH 800 PM CDT INCLUDE...
  PHILIPP

.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. IT ONLY TAKES A FOOT OF WATER TO FLOAT A VEHICLE.

.TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MEMPHIS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
130 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AT MID-DAY WITH COLD FRONT FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO OK PANHANDLE. THIS PUTS OUR AREA IN DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE OFF.
&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND EXPECT
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF IT TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. WILL ASSESS AREAL COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON...
BUT PROBABLY WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS.

MOISTURE NOT QUITE AS DEEP ON TUESDAY...BUT CAPES AND LIS PRETTY
MUCH UNCHANGED FROM TODAY. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN TODAY. HIGHS TO BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY..BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER ALSO FALLS A LITTLE EACH DAY. DONT SEE MUCH OF A REASON TO
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POP FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS AIRMASS
DRIES A LITTLE...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM UP...A DEGREE OR TWO A
DAY. HOWEVER...WILL PROBABLY TRIM FORECAST HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AT MEM AND JBR.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY AND BEYOND)...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER US FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN TEMPORARILY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM...THIS SHOULD CAP THE
AIRMASS AND REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFNTERNOON. AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

GFS INDICATES A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AND APPEARS REASONABLE. AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUDS WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

WAGNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
500 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-181000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
500 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.