Severe Thunderstorm Warning 414, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
335 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE OVER THE
GULF.  A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCED A CLUSTER OF STORMS
THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE INTO
TRANS PECOS COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE
APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS SO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL PRODUCERS WILL NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY.  WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN PWS ON KMAF SOUNDINGS STILL RUNNING OVER 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE MID 60S.  THEREFORE... ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES THAT TRACK
INTO THE AREA TODAY CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS.
WHILE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT VORT MAXS COMING OVER
THE REGION... ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT FLOWS THROUGH WILL BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE PRECIP.  EXPECT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE
SLOW TO BURN OFF WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BOTH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING OVER THE
AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND A 70 KNOT UPPER JET MOVING
OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF TERRELL
AND EASTERN BREWSTER COUNTIES FRIDAY...AS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE BAJA SATURDAY...WITH A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO TRANSPORT SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADJUSTED
SUNDAY POPS UPWARD A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN...TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO SOME RATHER
CHILLY READINGS TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE PREVIOUS GRIDS SEEM TO
MATCH CLOSE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             77  63  78  62 /  30  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM               79  57  80  57 /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 77  64  79  62 /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          80  63  81  59 /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         76  57  75  52 /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  77  57  80  57 /  20  10  20  20
MARFA TX                  74  53  76  50 /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   77  63  78  60 /  30  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                 77  62  78  59 /  30  20  20  20
WINK TX                   83  63  82  60 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

72/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-272000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
358 AM CDT (258 AM MDT) WED OCT 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT
IS LOW... A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.