Severe Thunderstorm Warning 407, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT DISCERNIBLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...STRETCHING
WEST/EAST FROM NEAR KGDP TO JAL AND JUST NORTH OF KBPG AT 13/19Z.
MEANWHILE...POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO.  CU DEVELOPING BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH HEATING BEHIND AND AHEAD OF SAME.
EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PICKS UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH CHILLY AIRMASS BEING REINFORCED BY RAIN.
APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...AND OUT AHEAD OF IT.  H7 TO H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR
7.5 C/KM COLLOCATED WITH LI/S OF -3 TO -4 C OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA.  AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO TRANSLATES
SOUTHEAST IN THE COMING HOURS...MID LEVEL LIFT WILL INCREASE AND AID
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA.  WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
LOCATIONS WHERE THINK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE THIS EVENING...
WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS.
COULD SEE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE ABOVE
PARAMETERS...IN ADDITION TO 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF 40 TO 50
KT CWAWIDE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...BUT EXPECTING THESE TO LAST ONLY INTO THE EVENING.  THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA LATER TONIGHT.  SHIFTED THE
BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR LATER.

EXPECT THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN FUNNELED WINDS
THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS EXCEEDING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.  WILL
ISSUE AN NPW UNTIL 14/10Z...WHICH APPEARS TO BE WHEN THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE THE CHILLIEST YET THIS FALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWERED MIN TEMPS PARTICULARLY IN THOSE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW TRANSLATING/DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST TOMORROW.
THIS TROUGH WILL DEPART THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY AFTER INDUCING
FAIRLY STRONG ANTICYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS NOW PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.  WILL HAVE SINKING AIR IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH...AND THEREFORE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  WE WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ON TOP OF THE AREA.  BY FRIDAY HOWEVER...
UNDER CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN INDUCING LEE TROUGHING.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.  AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A /DIRTY/ RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA...AND THESE TWO DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR PLAINS AREAS.  AS A
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ON THE WEST COAST...OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL...INDICATING A DRIER PATTERN AT THE SURFACE.
THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL NOT
INSERT POPS AT THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  BUT...THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MAY
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NM AND INCREASE WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             43  68  48  80 /  40  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               43  68  47  82 /  40   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 51  71  49  81 /  40  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          46  67  52  83 /  40  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX         40  63  49  76 /  40   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                  40  68  46  81 /  40   0   0   0
MARFA TX                  45  63  39  76 /  40  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   42  68  48  81 /  50  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                 41  67  48  81 /  50  10   0   0
WINK TX                   43  70  48  87 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...TXZ258.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY
     COUNTY...NMZ027.

&&

67/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
228 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-141000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
228 PM CDT (128 PM MDT) WED OCT 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH
THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.  THEREFORE...
A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.  THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.