Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
239 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

.SHORT TERM...
19Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF A KLBB-KCDS
LINE. 3HR PRESSURE RISES ENDING 16Z OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WERE ON
THE ORDER OF 7MB...BUT HAVE NOW DECREASED TO NEAR 3MB. 19Z SURFACE
OBS ALSO REVEAL DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE HAS PUSHED INTO THE MOUNTAINS TO GIN UP THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE DAVIS AND GLASS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES AROUND 21Z...THEN PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY
12Z SUN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE...WITH STRONGER WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS IN
THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE A LOW-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND EAST OF A KCNM-KE38 LINE...SO THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS NOT GREAT OVER OUR AREA AS THE SHEAR WILL BE POOR.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO CONTINUE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER.

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
THE UPPER FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
TO THE BIG BEND REGION ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/BIG BEND REGION
WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE AXIS SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SHORTWAVES WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE DRYLINE TO INITIATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             48  58  44  69 /  40  30  10  20
CARLSBAD NM               48  60  44  75 /  20  40  10  30
DRYDEN TX                 58  61  47  69 /  40  40  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          51  58  47  71 /  40  40  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX         45  55  45  68 /  10  40  20  30
HOBBS NM                  44  58  43  74 /  30  30  10  20
MARFA TX                  53  57  38  67 /  20  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   48  58  46  70 /  40  40  10  20
ODESSA TX                 49  58  46  70 /  40  40  10  20
WINK TX                   51  61  47  75 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR TXZ258.
NM...NONE.

&&

06/21/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
250 PM CST (150 PM MST) SAT MAR 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERD NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL DEADLY LIGHTNING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...STRONG
EAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.