Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MOIST PLUME AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. A WELL DEFINED CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING...EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHWEST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. KMAF RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM EAST OF BIG SPRING TO SOUTH OF
COLORADO CITY AT 18Z. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND A 40-45 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD PERSIST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING ACRS GREAT BASIN REGION WILL ALLOW
MID LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO NE BY WED PM. THIS WILL PUSH WEAKNESS IN
RIDGE W THEREBY SIGNALING PATTERN CHANGE WED...WITH ISOLD DIURNAL
POPS IN/NEAR MTNS. GFS IS SLOWER IN MOVING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS W...AND
SCT POPS ACRS FAR WRN AREAS STILL APPROPRIATE TUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN WAKE OF BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROF ACRS ERN U.S. WILL
ATTEMPT TO NOSE INTO W TX TUE-THU - WHICH SEEMS TOO FAR W (BUT MAY
BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK). GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON THE COOL SIDE IN PART
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE...AS SUCH WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT STILL BELOW/NEAR NORMAL (91 -PLAINS) THRU
MID WEEK. IN QUICK TURN COLD/FAST MOVING MID LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
THRU THE INTER MTN W/NRN HIGH PLAINS THU/FRI SUPPRESSING STR AND
BRINGING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW INTO W TX SAT. THIS WILL TRY TO PUSH
PACIFIC FRONT INTO W TX SAT/SUN. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE W ALLOWING
FOR NW MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS W TX TO DEVELOP WITH COLD AIRMASS
GATHERING ACRS ALASKA TO WRN ALBERTA SLIDING S THRU WRN HIGH PLAINS
MON. NO CHANGE TO THE WARMER LATE WEEK FCST ATTP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             64  88  65  86 /  30   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM               64  87  65  87 /  40  40  30  10
DRYDEN TX                 66  90  68  89 /  20  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          65  89  67  86 /  30  20  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX         59  80  62  80 /  40  40  30  10
HOBBS NM                  64  88  63  87 /  40  30  20  10
MARFA TX                  55  83  57  82 /  30  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   65  88  66  87 /  30  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                 65  88  66  88 /  30  10  10   0
WINK TX                   67  93  68  92 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
452 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-302000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
452 AM CDT (352 AM MDT) MON AUG 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.  THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  WHILE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW... A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION WILL
AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT
DEVELOPS... ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN THE AREA.