Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.UPDATE...
ALREADY SENT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS A LITTLE.  CONVECTION STILL
FLOURISHING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PERSISTS IN THESE AREAS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  THE STRONGER STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...BUT MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EDDY COUNTY AND NOT DISPLAYING MUCH MOTION.  SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT VERY INTENSE...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT AS
GREAT.  FURTHER SOUTH...LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO DWINDLE.  MAINLY SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  OTHERWISE...GRIDS/ZONES
LOOKED GOOD.  AKL

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACRS SE NM THIS PM WHERE SE UPSLOPE WINDS
HOLDING M60-70 DWPNTS IN PLACE. THIS WITH LR/S OF 8 C/KM RESULTING IN
CAPES OVER 4000 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLIER INDICATED WHAT LOOKED
LIKE A BOUNDARY MOVING THRU THE NW PB...BUT NEVER NOTED ANY WIND
SHIFTS...SO NOT CONFIDENT OF IT BEING MUCH OF A FOCUS E ACRS PB.
OTHERWISE WATER VAPOR DEPICTS STRONG WAVE MOVING N-NE INTO WRN NM
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACRS FAR W. DEEP MSTR
AS SEEN IN 7H-5H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACRS WRN AREAS CONTRIBUTING TO
PW/S OF 1 OR MORE. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAR W TO HIGH END CHC AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAVY RN HIGHLIGHTS IN ZFP/GRIDS/HWO. DWPNTS IN THE U60S-
N70 ACRS PB WITH WEAK LLJ WILL BE ENUF FOR LOWS TO HOLD IN L70S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE CWA WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT WX
THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
AS THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WWD.  DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN BEST OVR THE WRN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC
TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE...PROVIDED THE CAP CAN BE ERODED.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LVL LOW OFF THE LOWER TX GULF COAST CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE SLOWLY WWD.  BY SUNDAY...THIS INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH INTO
THE FA...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS FOR A FEW
DAYS AND A CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  ETA IS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS W/THE TROF...BRINGING IT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA...BUT BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION.  TUESDAY ONWARD...AS THE TROF MOVES WWD AND MINORS
OUT...UPPER LVL RIDGING BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF OVR THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK.  BY
WEDNESDAY...TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ABV NORMAL...WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCI SHIFTING W TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             73  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               72  93  65  93 /  40  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                 73  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          72  93  68  92 /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         67  89  62  89 /  50  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                  70  93  64  91 /  20   0   0  20
MARFA TX                  60  86  57  85 /  30  10   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   72  92  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                 72  93  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                   75  96  71  95 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

49/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
124 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-100600-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
124 PM CDT (1224 PM MDT) FRI JUL 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF A LINE FROM
SEMINOLE TO THE BIG BEND REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING
OR FLASH FLOODING. SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS AS STORMS TEND TO
LAST INTO THE NIGHT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             5 S VERHALEN            31.06N 103.59W
07/09/2004  0.88 INCH        REEVES             TX   PUBLIC

            HAILFALL BEGAN AT 505 PM AND ENDED AT 510 PM.

0515 PM     HAIL             4 SW VERHALEN           31.09N 103.64W
07/09/2004  0.88 INCH        REEVES             TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO NICKEL HAIL.

0548 PM     HAIL             TOYAH                   31.32N 103.79W
07/09/2004  1.00 INCH        REEVES             TX   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA KPTX RADIO IN PECOS.

0552 PM     HAIL             TOYAH                   31.32N 103.79W
07/09/2004  1.75 INCH        REEVES             TX   PUBLIC

            HAILFALL BEGAN IN TOYAH AT 552 PM AND LASTED UNTIL 608
            PM.

0552 PM     HAIL             TOYAH                   31.32N 103.79W
07/09/2004  1.75 INCH        REEVES             TX   PUBLIC

&&

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